268
AXNT20 KNHC 120449
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC THU DEC 12 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0448 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING: A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRONG COLD FRONT SPANS FROM WESTERN
CUBA TO BELIZE. STRONG TO GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEAS TO 19 FT CAN
BE EXPECTED IN THE SW GULF THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM W TO E TONIGHT
INTO THU.
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: FRESH TO STRONG S WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE NE FLORIDA OFFSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NW BASIN. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE-
FORCE OUT OF THE S AND SW AND BUILDING SEAS TO 11 FT ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE- FORCE WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH TO FRESH TO STRONG
SPEEDS ON THU.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT THE WEBSITE-
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC OVER W AFRICA NEAR 11N15W
THEN EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 06N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
06N19W TO 02N49W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 18W AND 38W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE
GALE WARNING CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA AND EXTENDED FROM
WESTERN CUBA TO BELIZE. STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE N WINDS FOLLOW
THE FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF ALONG WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS UP
TO 19 FT, WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING IN THE SW BASIN. ASIDE
FROM THE WIND AND SEAS, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LINGERS
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE FAR EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE. MARINE CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE NW GULF WHERE
WINDS ARE MODERATE TO FRESH WITH SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
SW GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE WAKE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT MOVED EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING. STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS TO 17 FT
REMAIN IN THE SW GULF AND JUST WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE TAMPA AREA.
THESE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM W
TO E TONIGHT INTO THU, THEN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL BRING MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK, AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST OVER THE SE GULF AND THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH SAT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
WHILE MOVING TOWARDS THE NE OF THE UNITED STATES.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A COLD FRONT EXTEND FROM WESTERN CUBA TO BELIZE, WHILE A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 21N80W TO INLAND BELIZE. THIS
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS FUELING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS
FORCING FRESH TO STRONG ENE TO E TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
RAPIDLY INCREASING NE WINDS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE NW CARIBBEAN
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS
ARE ONGOING IN THE EASTERN BASIN. SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN AND 4 TO 6 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF AREA COMBINED WITH THE
COLOMBIAN LOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND
ROUGH SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING OFFSHORE
COLOMBIA. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC THROUGH TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR THE TRADES TO DIMINISH TO
MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS, EXCEPT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA,
WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CUBA TO BELIZE WILL BECOME
STATIONARY FROM EAST-CENTRAL CUBA TO NEAR CABO GRACIAS A DIOS,
NICARAGUA THU NIGHT WHILE WEAKENING. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH SOME ON FRI, EXCEPT IN THE
LEE OF CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE FRESH TO STRONG NE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE
GALE WARNING CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN AND EXTENDS
FROM 31N76W SW TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS DEPICTED N OF 27.5N BETWEEN
75 AND 79W. STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
TO GALE FORCE ARE OCCURRING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
ELSEWHERE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A 1042 MB HIGH OVER
THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS. THE RIDGE IS BEING DISSECTED
BY AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N49W TO
14N52W, WHICH IS SUPPORTING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 13N TO 28N BETWEEN 46W AND 56W.
RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTED WINDS NEAR-GALE WITHIN THE
AREAS OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 11 FT ARE ALSO
ONGOING ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 40W AND 62W.
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS DOMINATE THE
ATLANTIC E OF 40W.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, STRONG TO FREQUENT GUST TO GALE-FORCE
NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHEAST
AND CENTRAL FLORIDA OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N76W SW TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE FRONT
WILL REACH FROM 31N69W TO 23N78W THU AFTERNOON, AND 31N68W TO
21.5N75W FRI AFTERNOON WHILE WEAKENING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AGAINST
AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE EAST. IN ADDITION, STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE ALSO FOLLOWS THE TROUGH. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
LEAD TO THE CONTINUATION OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS
WILL START TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
KRV
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page