012
AXNT20 KNHC 122345
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC FRI DEC 13 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES:
THE OUTLOOK SECTION FOR THE METEO-FRANCE MARINE FORECAST
CONSISTS OF THE THREAT OF CYCLONIC NEAR GALE OR GALE IN THE
MARINE ZONE IRVING. THE OUTLOOK PERIOD COVERS THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AFTER THE INITIAL 36-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. PLEASE, REFER TO THE
WEBSITE: HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT, FOR DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 07N11W AND EXTENDS TO
05N13W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N13W TO 04N40W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 34W AND
45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01N TO 06N
BETWEEN 19W AND 34W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN MEXICO, A 1033 MB HIGH
PREVAILS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH IN THE UNITED STATES AND A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA THROUGH NORTHERN HONDURAS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG
NE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS, MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF 89W AND SOUTH OF 28N. ROUGH SEAS
OF 8 TO 11 FT ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 7 FT ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF. RESIDUAL ROUGH
SEAS TO 8 FT REMAIN IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. OTHERWISE,
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG RIDGING
IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL SUSTAIN FRESH TO STRONG NE
WINDS ACROSS THE SE GULF AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND MODERATE
TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. AFTERWARD, MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE
BASIN WILL FURTHER DIMINISH TO GENTLE TO MODERATE SPEEDS BY TUE.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
AT 1800 UTC, A STATIONARY FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL CUBA
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN HONDURAS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
NE WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN, AS WELL AS THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AND DOWNWIND OF HISPANIOLA. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO
SUPPORTS MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN, WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OCCURRING
OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE NE
WINDS PREVAIL IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT
PREVAIL THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
BASIN, AS WELL AS OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA AND EASTERN PANAMA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES AND WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SUSTAIN FRESH TO STRONG
N TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
STRONG RIDGE WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH
SUN MORNING. AFTERWARD, MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS WILL FURTHER
DIMINISH TO GENTLE TO MODERATE SPEEDS BY MON AFTERNOON AS THE
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS NE AND THEN EASTWARD TO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO SUPPORT FRESH
TO STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT
MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WILL
DIMINISH ON FRI AS A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION. OTHERWISE,
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N70W THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS, AND
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ALONG AND
BEHIND THIS FRONT, GENERALLY WEST OF 70W THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT PREVAIL IN THE
REGION OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS. ELSEWHERE, A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
28N53W TO 07N57W, AND A 1039 MB IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR
45N40W. THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG E TO NE WINDS WEST OF THE TROUGH
AXIS, FROM 68W EASTWARD, AND WIDESPREAD STRONG E TO SE WINDS EAST
OF THE TROUGH, GENERALLY NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 40W AND 59W. ROUGH
SEAS ARE NOTED ACROSS ALL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS SURROUNDING
THE TROUGH, WITH PEAK SEAS OF 13 TO 16 FT OCCURRING NORTH OF 24N
BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. SOUTH OF 20N, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND
SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT PREVAIL. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE
WINDS PREVAIL OFFSHORE OF MAURITANIA AND SENEGAL.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
STALL FROM 31N67W TO THE EASTERN BAHAMAS THIS EVENING AND
DISSIPATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS AFFECTING THE FLORIDA OFFSHORE WATERS, AND THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS WILL PREVAIL AND EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AGAINST
AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE EAST. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO
E WINDS WILL IMPACT A LARGE AREA NORTH OF 20N THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FREQUENT GUST TO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS OFFSHORE WATERS SAT THROUGH SUN. WINDS WILL START
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
ADAMS
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