275
AXNT20 KNHC 132353
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC FRI DEC 13 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
SOUTHWEST N ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: A 1037 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE CAROLINAS IN THE UNITED STATES, AND A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 31N68W THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CUBA. FARTHER
EAST, A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM A 1008 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 22N64W. WIDESPREAD FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING SURROUNDING THESE FEATURES, INCLUDING AREAS OFFSHORE OF
FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS, THE BAHAMAS AND MOST
AREAS NORTH OF CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
PROGRESS WESTWARD THIS WEEKEND, AND THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF GALE FORCE WINDS NORTH OF
72N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W SAT INTO EARLY SUN. VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS, WITH PEAK SEAS OF 12 TO 17 FT OCCURRING
NORTH OF 22N AND TO THE WEST OF 60W, INCLUDING AREAS JUST OFFSHORE
OF FLORIDA. WINDS LOOK TO FALL BELOW GALE FORCE ON SUN BUT REMAIN
FRESH TO STRONG THROUGH MON. SEAS WILL VERY SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH PEAK SEAS FALLING BELOW 12
FT BY NEXT TUE.
EASTERN N ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: A 1018 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
34N30W. A BROAD SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE OCCURRING TO
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER, IMPACTING AREAS NORTH OF 21N
AND EAST OF 45E. THE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN THIS WEEKEND, LEADING TO
GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER ON SAT NORTH OF 26N
AND EAST OF 30W, AND ON THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE
LOW BY SAT AFTERNOON, NORTH OF 30N AND EAST OF 37W. VERY ROUGH
SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THE WINDS, WITH PEAK SEAS OF 12 TO 20 FT
OCCURRING NEAR THE GALE FORCE WINDS. ROUGH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT
WILL EXPAND AS FAR SOUTH AS 21N BY SAT AFTERNOON, AND 18N BY SUN
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS THE
LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD, AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
..GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE METEO-FRANCE MARINE ZONES
THE OUTLOOK SECTION FOR THE METEO-FRANCE MARINE FORECAST CONSISTS
OF: THE PERSISTENCE OF OR THE THREAT OF CYCLONIC NEAR GALE-FORCE
WINDS, OR GALE-FORCE WINDS, IN THE MARINE ZONES IRVING AND METEOR,
IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF MADEIRA, IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF
CANARIAS, AND IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF CAPE VERDE. THE OUTLOOK
PERIOD COVERS THE NEXT 24 HOURS THAT ARE AFTER THE INITIAL
36-HOUR LONG FORECAST PERIOD. PLEASE, REFER TO THE WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT, FOR DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W AND EXTENDS TO
04N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N21W TO 04N36W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 27W AND
50W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
BROAD RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO, WHILE A TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NORTHERN HONDURAS. MODERATE TO FRESH
E TO NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE BASIN, WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS EXPANDING WESTWARD THROUGH
THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND OFF THE COAST
OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SE
RETURN FLOW IS NOTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OFF THE COAST OF
TEXAS. LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE OCCURRING THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL, WHILE SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE UNITED STATES
WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS OVER MOST OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. STARTING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME OVER THE CENTRAL AND W GULF
BUT WILL MAINTAIN AS FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS FOR THE E GULF
INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. ON MON AND TUE,
CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIESCENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. LOOKING
AHEAD, THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE NW GULF OF MEXICO ON
WED.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA THROUGH NORTHERN HONDURAS
WHILE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING A BROAD SWATH OF FRESH NE
WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN, WITH
STRONG NE WINDS OCCURRING IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND HISPANIOLA,
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND MONA PASSAGE, AND OFFSHORE OF
COLOMBIA. A TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN, AND
GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO NE WINDS ARE NOTED NEAR THE AXIS. LOCALLY
ROUGH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE OCCURRING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND
BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HAITI, WHILE SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT PREVAIL ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN. SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT
PREVAIL IN THE EASTERN BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SE UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE TO FORCE FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
W CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE UNTIL SUN
NIGHT. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX ACROSS
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND EARLY NEXT WEEK THE TRADES ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SHOULD BE ONLY MODERATE OR WEAKER. LOOKING AHEAD, A
BUILDING RIDGE MAY ENHANCE THE TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
STARTING ON TUE NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION
REGARDING THE GALE WARNING IN THE SW ATLANTIC AND THE GALE WARNING
IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
A 1037 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS IN THE UNITED
STATES, AND A STATIONARY FROM EXTENDS FROM 31N68W THROUGH THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CUBA. FARTHER EAST, A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
NORTHWARD FROM A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N64W. WIDESPREAD
FRESH TO STRONG E TO NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF 20N BECAUSE
OF THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. ROUGH SEAS
IN EXCESS OF 8 FT ARE IMPACTING MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS NORTH OF
20N, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OF 12 TO 14 FT OCCURRING NORTH OF 23N
BETWEEN 52W AND 68W. SOUTH OF 20N, MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL. NEAR
THE CANARY ISLANDS, MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS ARE NOTED.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM JUST
WEST OF BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT. A
1008 MB LOW NEAR 22N64W SITS ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED TROUGH.
AS THE LOW/TROUGH SHIFTS WESTWARD, A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR
GALE NE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL SET UP OVER ALL OF THE
WATERS WEST OF 65W DURING THE WEEKEND. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW/TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE US MID-
ATLANTIC WATERS, PEAK WINDS SHOULD REACH GALE FORCE SAT AND SAT
NIGHT BETWEEN THE WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA. DURING SUN
AND MON, CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE, AND BY TUE AND WED
WINDS WILL BE REDUCED MODERATE TO FRESH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
ADAMS
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