756
AXNT20 KNHC 140619
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SAT DEC 14 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
WESTERN ATLANTIC GALE WARNING:
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM A STRONG 1044 MB
HIGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. TO NEAR BERMUDA. A SURFACE TROUGH
CURVES NORTHEASTWARD FROM A 1008 MB LOW NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TO
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA NEAR 30N60W. TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES IS CAUSING NEAR-GALE TO GALE-FORCE NE WINDS NEAR A
WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS. THESE WINDS ALONG WITH PEAK SEAS OF 15 TO 18 FT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT, BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
HOWEVER WINDS WILL STAY AT FRESH TO STRONG AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 12 FT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
EASTERN ATLANTIC GALE WARNING:
TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1038 MB HIGH NORTH OF THE AZORES AND A
1008 MB WEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS IS GENERATING STRONG TO NEAR-
GALE NE WINDS AND 11 TO 14 FT SEAS NEAR 31N33W. THIS LOW IS EXPECT
TO STEADILY DEEPEN WHILE DRIFTING NORTHWARD SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY, ALLOWING THESE WINDS TO REACH GALE-FORCE AND EXPAND
SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 28N BY SATURDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL ALSO PEAK AT
15 TO 19 FT BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND PASS NORTH OF 31N SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE.
FOR BOTH GALE WARNINGS ABOVE, PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURCN CENTER AT
WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
METEO-FRANCE MARINE ZONES:
METEO-FRANCE NO LONGER MENTION GALE-FORCE WINDS AT MARINE ZONES
IRVING, METEOR, MADEIRA, CANARIAS AND CAPE VERDE. PLEASE REFER TO
THE WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT/INDEX.PHP/METAREAS/AFFICHE/2 FOR DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH REMAIN MOSTLY OVER THE AFRICA CONTINENT. AN ITCZ
EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN LIBERIA AT 04N15W
THROUGH 04N30W TO 06N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING NEAR AND UP TO 250 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 18W AND
40W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE REACHES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR VERACRUZ,
MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG ENE WINDS AND SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT ARE
PRESENT AT THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF, INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
MODERATE E TO ESE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE NOTED AT THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. FRESH WITH LOCALLY STRONG E
TO SE WINDS AND SEAS AT 5 TO 7 FT PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE
GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E
WINDS OVER MOST OF THE GULF THROUGH SAT EVENING. HOWEVER, FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FLORIDA STRAITS THROUGH SUN
NIGHT. ON MON AND TUE, CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIESCENT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE GULF. LOOKING AHEAD, THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON WED.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE DISSIPATING END OF A STATIONARY FRONT REACHES SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO THE
NORTHWESTERN BASIN. PATCHY SHOWERS ARE FOUND NEAR AND NORTH OF
THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
OFFSHORE OF EASTERN FLORIDA IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG NE
WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN, NORTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6
TO 7 FT ARE MOSTLY AT THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN, LEE OF CUBA, NEAR
WINDWARD PASSAGE/JAMAICA. MOSTLY FRESH NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7
FT ARE VISIBLE AT THE GULF OF HONDURAS, AND SOUTHWESTERN BASIN.
GENTLE TO MODERATE ENE TO SE WINDS WITH 2 T 4 FT SEAS. AT THE
EASTERN BASIN, GENTLE TO MODERATE ENE TO SE WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FT
PREVAIL AT THE EASTERN BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SE UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE TO FORCE FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
W CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE UNTIL SUN
NIGHT. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX ACROSS MOST
OF THE CARIBBEAN, AND EARLY NEXT WEEK THE TRADES ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SHOULD BE ONLY MODERATE OR WEAKER. LOOKING AHEAD, A
BUILDING RIDGE MAY ENHANCE THE TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
STARTING ON TUE NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION
REGARDING THE TWO GALE WARNINGS.
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NEAR
BERMUDA ACROSS 31N66W TO BEYOND THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS. PATCHY
SHOWERS ARE SEEN NEAR AND UP TO 250 NM, NORTHWEST OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES NORTHEASTWARD FROM A
1008 MB LOW NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AT 22N65W TO NEAR 30N60W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 56W AND
64W. AT THE EASTERN ATLANTIC, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM A 1008 MB AT 28N30W TO 20N48W, THEN CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD
TO NEAR 24N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND UP TO 70 NM
NORTH AND 150 NM SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE LOW NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 23W AND 33W. REFER
TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER IN THE
ATLANTIC BASIN.
OTHER THAN THE AREAS MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION,
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO ESE WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FT DOMINATE NORTH OF
20N BETWEEN 35W AND THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA COST. FOR THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC FROM 04 TO 20N BETWEEN 35W AND THE LESSER ANTILLES,
GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH AND 4 TO 6 FT ARE EVIDENT.
FOR THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC WEST OF 35W, GENTLE WITH LOCALLY
MODERATE SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT IN MIXED MODERATE SWELLS
PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT.
A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 21N65W SITS ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
TROUGH. AS THE LOW/TROUGH SHIFTS WESTWARD, A LARGE AREA OF STRONG
TO NEAR GALE NE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL SET UP OVER ALL OF
THE WATERS WEST OF 65W DURING THE WEEKEND. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW/TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE US MID- ATLANTIC WATERS, PEAK WINDS SHOULD REACH GALE FORCE
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT BETWEEN THE WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS
AND BERMUDA. DURING SUN AND MON, CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE, AND BY TUE AND WED WINDS WILL BE REDUCED TO MODERATE TO
FRESH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
CHAN
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