417
AXNT20 KNHC 141642
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC SAT DEC 14 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1630 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
WEST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 1050 MB
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AND 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE AND A SHARP TROUGH NORTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT NE GALE FORCE WINDS NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 66W AND 73W.
ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 65W AND THE COAST OF FLORIDA, NE
WINDS ARE SUSTAINED AT STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE SPEEDS, WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. SATELLITE ALTIMETER DATA JUST
RECEIVED SUPPORTS AN ANALYSIS OF 12-16 FT SEAS IN THIS AREA. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY
NIGHT, WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS.
EAST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: A STRONG COMPLEX OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR
25N30W IS GENERATING CYCLONIC GALES FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 26W
AND 29W, AND OUTSIDE OF FORECAST WATERS NORTH OF 31N. THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND MOVE NW TO NEAR 32N31W
SUNDAY MORNING. GALES WILL SPREAD WESTWARD WITH THE LOW PRESSURE,
COVERING THE WATERS NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 21W AND 37W SUNDAY
MORNING. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 12-15 FT WILL BUILD TO 12-21
FT BY SUNDAY MORNING, ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 20W AND
43W. MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE IN THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. METEO-FRANCE HAS
ALSO ISSUED GALE WARNINGS FOR THE CANARAIS, IRVING, METEOR, AND
MADEIRA FORECAST ZONES. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH
SEAS WARNING/FORECAST AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT/INDEX.PHP/METAREAS/AFFICHE/2 FOR MORE DETAILS.
FOR BOTH GALE WARNINGS, PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS INLAND OVER AFRICA. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
07N11W TO 07N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE ITCZ.
GULF OF MEXICO...
MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW AND SEAS OF 4-7 FT PREVAIL ACROSS
THE GULF. IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND FAR SE GULF, THE LATEST
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER INDICATES STRONG ENE WINDS AND SEAS TO 8
FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SE UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS OVER THE EASTERN GULF, INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA, THROUGH EARLY MON. THEN, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED MON AND TUE. LOOKING AHEAD,
THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WED NIGHT
INTO THU.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS CONTINUE IN THE LEE OF CUBA, ACROSS THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS, AND REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. SEAS ARE 6-9 FT IN THIS
SECTION OF THE BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED IN
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, WITH 6-8 FT SEAS. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS
ARE ANALYZED IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 4-7 FT IN THESE
WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
FORCE FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THROUGH
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE UNTIL EARLY SUN. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE SW N ATLANTIC WATERS EXTENDING INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
MONA PASSAGE WILL DRIFT WESTWARD MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ON SUN WHILE WEAKENING. THIS TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN, ALLOWING
FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH TUE.
LOOKING AHEAD, A BUILDING RIDGE N OF THE AREA MAY ENHANCE THE
TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO FRESH TO STRONG
SPEEDS TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
TWO GALE WARNINGS AND DESCRIPTIONS OF ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS.
SEAS ARE IN EXCESS OF 8 FT NORTH OF 20N ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DESCRIBED AREAS OF SEAS IN EXCESS
OF 12 FT. WINDS NORTH OF 20N, GENERALLY BLOWING FROM THE N AND E,
ARE FRESH TO STRONG. SEAS ARE 4-7 FT SOUTH OF 20N WITH MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADES.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN OF THE UNITED STATES AND A
1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED N OF THE MONA PASSAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG TO MINIMAL GALE-FORCE NE WINDS AND
VERY ROUGH SEAS OVER ALL OF THE WATERS WEST OF 65W. GALE FORCE
WINDS BETWEEN THE WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH SUN. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE SUN AND
MON, AND BY TUE AND WED WINDS WILL BE REDUCED TO MODERATE TO
FRESH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
MAHONEY
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