502
AXNT20 KNHC 142345
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SUN DEC 15 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
WESTERN ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A
1049 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE AND A SHARP TROUGH NORTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT NE GALE FORCE WINDS NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 70W AND 72W.
ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 65W AND THE COAST OF FLORIDA, NE
WINDS ARE SUSTAINED AT STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE SPEEDS, WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. RECENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS OF 14
FT OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA, AND PEAK SEAS UP TO 18 FT ARE LIKELY
IN THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
EASTERN ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: A STRONG COMPLEX OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR 27N30W IS GENERATING CYCLONIC GALES FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN
25W AND 27W, AND OUTSIDE OF FORECAST WATERS NORTH OF 31N. THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND MOVE NW TO NEAR
32N31W SUNDAY MORNING. GALES WILL SPREAD WESTWARD WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE, COVERING THE WATERS NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 18W AND 35W
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 12-15 FT WILL BUILD TO
12-22 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING, ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN
20W AND 43W. MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE IN THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. METEO-
FRANCE HAS ALSO ISSUED GALE WARNINGS FOR THE CANARAIS, IRVING,
METEOR, AND MADEIRA FORECAST ZONES. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-
FRANCE HIGH SEAS WARNING/FORECAST AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT/INDEX.PHP/METAREAS/AFFICHE/2 FOR MORE DETAILS.
FOR BOTH GALE WARNINGS, PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 07N11.5W AND CONTINUES
TO 07N12W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N12W TO 07N57.5W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE ITCZ.
GULF OF MEXICO...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH RETURN FLOW AND SEAS OF 4-7 FT PREVAIL
ACROSS THE GULF. IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND FAR SE GULF, STRONG
ENE WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT ARE NOTED.
FOR THE FORECAST, A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS OVER THE EASTERN GULF, INCLUDING THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA, THROUGH EARLY MON. THEN, GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED MON AND TUE.
LOOKING AHEAD, THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO BY WED NIGHT.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS CONTINUE IN THE LEE OF CUBA, THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE, AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN
DUE TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. SEAS ARE 6-9
FT IN THIS SECTION OF THE BASIN. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE
WINDS ARE ANALYZED IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN,
WITH MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 3-7 FT IN THESE
WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
FORCE FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THROUGH
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE UNTIL EARLY MON. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE SW N ATLANTIC WATERS EXTENDING INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ON SUN WHILE WEAKENING. THIS TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT
WEEK, ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN
THROUGH TUE. LOOKING AHEAD, A BUILDING RIDGE N OF THE AREA MAY
ENHANCE THE TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO FRESH TO
STRONG SPEEDS TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
TWO GALE WARNINGS AND DESCRIPTIONS OF ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS.
SEAS ARE IN EXCESS OF 8 FT NORTH OF 20N ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DESCRIBED AREAS OF SEAS IN EXCESS
OF 12 FT. WINDS NORTH OF 20N, GENERALLY BLOWING FROM THE N AND E,
ARE FRESH TO STRONG. SEAS ARE 4-7 FT SOUTH OF 20N WITH MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADES.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN OF THE UNITED STATES AND
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED
JUST N OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IS SUPPORTING STRONG TO MINIMAL GALE-
FORCE NE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS WEST
OF 65W, BUT MAINLY N OF 27N. GALE FORCE WINDS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS
AND BERMUDA WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUN MORNING. MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE SUN AND MON, AND BY TUE AND WED WINDS
WILL BE REDUCED TO MODERATE TO FRESH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
ADAMS
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