668
AXNT20 KNHC 150538
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SUN DEC 15 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
WESTERN ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A
1051 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE AND A SHARP TROUGH OVER AND NORTH OF HISPANIOLA
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT NE NEAR-GALE TO GALE-FORCE WINDS NORTH OF
27N BETWEEN 68W AND 75W. SEAS IN THIS GENERAL AREA ARE PEAKING AT
17 TO 19 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW AND RELATED TROUGH WEAKEN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES.
EASTERN ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: A BROAD 1001 MB OCEANIC LOW
PRESSURE NEAR 30N30W IS GENERATING NORTHERLY NEAR-GALE TO GALE-
FORCE WINDS NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 32W AND 37W. SEAS UNDER THESE
WINDS ARE PEAKING AT 18 TO 21 FT. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW MARINE CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE STARTING LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, METEO-FRANCE HAS ALSO ISSUED GALE
WARNINGS FOR THE CANARAIS, IRVING, METEOR, AND MADEIRA MARINE
ZONES DUE TO THE SAME OCEANIC LOW. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-
FRANCE HIGH SEAS WARNING/FORECAST AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT/INDEX.PHP/METAREAS/AFFICHE/2 FOR MORE DETAILS.
FOR BOTH GALE WARNINGS, PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH STAYS MOSTLY OVER THE AFRICA CONTINENT. AN ITCZ
EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM OFF THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE AT 07N15W TO
04N35W, THEN TURNS NORTHWESTWARD TO 09N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR AND UP TO 150 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ.
..GULF OF MEXICO
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE RUNS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR TAMPICO, MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG
ENE WINDS AND SEAS AT 6 TO 8 FT ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. FRESH ENE TO E WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE PRESENT FOR
THE REST OF THE EASTERN GULF. GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH LOCALLY
FRESH NE TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN
THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS OVER THE EASTERN GULF, INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA, THROUGH EARLY MON. THEN, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED MON AND TUE. LOOKING AHEAD,
THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF BY WED
NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A BROAD 1009 MB LOW AND RELATED SHARP SURFACE TROUGH IS CAUSING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR
HISPANIOLA. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND SEAS AT 5 TO 8 FT ARE
EVIDENT AT THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH NNE TO NE
WINDS WITH 5 TO 7 FT SEAS ARE SEEN IN THE REST OF THE WESTERN
BASIN, INCLUDING WATERS NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND JAMAICA.
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT PREVAIL
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN AND
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE UNTIL EARLY SUN. THE BROAD LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ON SUN WHILE WEAKENING. THIS WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO RELAX ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN, ALLOWING FOR GENTLE
TO MODERATE TRADES THROUGH TUE. LOOKING AHEAD, A BUILDING RIDGE
NORTH OF THE AREA MAY ENHANCE THE TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL BASIN, REACHING FRESH TO STRONG TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AT THE BEGINNING ON
TWO GALE WARNINGS.
OUTSIDE THE GALE WARNING AREA IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, FRESH TO
STRONG WITH LOCALLY NEAR-GALE ENE TO E WINDS AND SEAS OF 12 TO 17
FT ARE SEEN NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 63W AND THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA
COAST. TO THE SOUTH FROM 20N TO 23N, FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND
7 TO 11 FT SEAS EXIST BETWEEN 70W AND THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK,
WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE SE WINDS AND SEAS AT 7 TO 9 FT DOMINATE
BETWEEN 63W AND 70W. FARTHER EAST, MODERATE TO FRESH ENE TO SE
WINDS AND SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT ARE FOUND NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 55W
AND 63W.
AT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 44W AND 55W, GENTLE
TO MODERATE NE TO ESE WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FT SEAS IN LARGE NE SWELLS
ARE NOTED. NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 35W AND 44W OUTSIDE THE GALE
WARNING AREA, MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO N WINDS WITH 8 TO 16 FT SEAS
IN LARGE TO VERY LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL EXIST. FOR THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC FROM 04N TO 20N BETWEEN 35W AND THE LESSER ANTILLES,
GENTLE TO MODERATE N TO E TO ESE WINDS AND SEAS AT 5 TO 7 FT SEAS
ARE EVIDENT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS IN MIXED
MODERATE SWELLS PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN WEST OF
35W.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, GALE-FORCE WINDS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS
AND BERMUDA WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUN MORNING. MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE SUN AND MON, AND BY TUE AND WED WINDS
WILL BE REDUCED TO BETWEEN MODERATE AND FRESH ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA.
CHAN
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