557
AXNT20 KNHC 151043
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC SUN DEC 15 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1040 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
WESTERN ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A
1045 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE UNITED STATES AND A 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE WITH A SHARP TROUGH OVER AND NORTH OF HISPANIOLA
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT NE NEAR-GALE TO GALE-FORCE WINDS NORTH OF
25N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W. SEAS IN THIS GENERAL AREA ARE PEAKING AT
20 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATER
THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW AND RELATED TROUGH WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT, WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MID-
WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES.
EASTERN ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WNW
OF THE CANARY ISLANDS ARE GENERATING NORTHERLY NEAR-GALE TO GALE-
FORCE WINDS NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 20W AND 35W. SEAS UNDER THESE
WINDS ARE PEAKING AT 21 FT. THE LOW PRESSURES ARE FORECAST TO
MERGE AND THEN MOVE NNE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MARINE
CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION, METEO-FRANCE HAS ALSO ISSUED GALE WARNINGS FOR THE
CANARAIS, IRVING, METEOR, AND MADEIRA MARINE ZONES DUE TO THE SAME
OCEANIC LOWS. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO- FRANCE HIGH SEAS
WARNING/FORECAST AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT/INDEX.PHP/METAREAS/AFFICHE/2 FOR MORE DETAILS.
FOR BOTH GALE WARNINGS, PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH STAYS MOSTLY OVER THE AFRICA CONTINENT. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM 08N14W TO 04N35W, THEN TURNS
NORTHWESTWARD TO 09N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 15W AND 41W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE RUNS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR TAMPICO, MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG
ENE WINDS AND SEAS AT 6 TO 8 FT ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
PRESENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS OVER THE EASTERN GULF, INCLUDING THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA, THROUGH EARLY MON. THEN, GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED MON AND TUE.
LOOKING AHEAD, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
BY WED NIGHT AND DISSIPATE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY EARLY
THU.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A BROAD 1009 MB LOW JUST N OF HISPANIOLA AND RELATED SURFACE
TROUGH ARE CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HISPANIOLA ADJACENT WATERS, INCLUDING THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT PREVAIL AT THE
NW BASIN, INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
FORCE FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN UNTIL MON
MORNING AND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A
BROAD SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SW N ATLANTIC WATERS EXTENDING INTO
THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH HISPANIOLA WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY WHILE WEAKENING. THIS TROUGH WILL CAUSE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN,
ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL
BASIN THROUGH MON. LOOKING AHEAD, A BUILDING RIDGE N OF THE AREA
WILL ENHANCE THE TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO
FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AT THE BEGINNING ON
TWO GALE WARNINGS.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NE UNITED STATES AND A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE CENTRAL HISPANIOLA COASTAL WATERS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
STRONG TO MINIMAL GALE-FORCE NE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS OVER
MOST OF THE WATERS WEST OF 65W. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
GENERATING SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER THE EE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL
WATERS. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC WATERS WHERE WINDS ARE MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE, AND
SEAS ARE 7-8 FT. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE
ONGOING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE UNITED STATES AND THE 1009 MB
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL HISPANIOLA COASTAL WATERS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG TO MINIMAL GALE-FORCE NE WINDS AND
VERY ROUGH SEAS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS WEST OF 65W THROUGH LATER
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NE TO E WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS
AND BERMUDA THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTERWARD, MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AND BY LATE WED WINDS WILL BE REDUCED TO
MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. LOOKING AHEAD,
THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST INTO
THE NE FLORIDA OFFSHORE WATERS WED NIGHT AND REACH FROM BERMUDA
TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THU NIGHT.
RAMOS
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