756
AXNT20 KNHC 151751
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC SUN DEC 15 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
..WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N65W BEYOND 20N69W,
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 70W. A 1049 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
IS IN SOUTHERN MAINE. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT IS BETWEEN
MAINE AND THE PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS JUST TO THE NORTH
OF HISPANIOLA IS HELPING TO CREATE STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE
WINDS, AND WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE-FORCE, AND ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS, TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
THE BAHAMAS. EXPECT ELSEWHERE FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH WESTWARD:
STRONG NE WINDS. THE SEAS WILL BE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH TO THE E OF
THE SE BAHAMAS; AND THE SEAS WILL BE ROUGH ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE
BAHAMAS. EXPECT: STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NE TO E WINDS, FROM 23N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE SEAS WILL BE
ROUGH IN NE TO E SWELL, EXCEPT FOR ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS FROM
25N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. EXPECT: FRESH OR SLOWER WINDS,
AND ROUGH SEAS IN NE TO E SWELL, ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM
55W WESTWARD. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL SLOW DOWN A LITTLE BIT, SLOWLY,
WITH TIME, AND THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL SUBSIDE A LITTLE BIT, SLOWLY,
WITH TIME, STARTING FROM THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS, AND BEYOND. PRECIPITATION: SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IS FROM 18N TO 28N BETWEEN 57W AND 70W.
PLEASE, READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST, AND THE LATEST
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS, THAT ARE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER, AT THE WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML, AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP, FOR DETAILS.
...METEO-FRANCE MARINE ZONES GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING FROM
35W EASTWARD...
A 1000 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CLOSE TO 31N32W. A 1002 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS CLOSE TO 31N27W. THE METEO-FRANCE MARINE
FORECAST CONSISTS OF GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE FOLLOWING MARINE
ZONES: IN THE EASTERN HALF OF IRVING UNTIL 16/1200 UTC; IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF MADEIRA UNTIL 16/1200 UTC; IN THE EASTERN HALF OF
METEOR UNTIL 16/0000 UTC; AND IN THE NW PART OF CANARIAS UNTIL
16/0600 UTC. ROUGH SEAS IN GENERAL ARE FROM 24N NORTHWARD FROM
30W EASTWARD. VERY ROUGH TO NEAR HIGH SEAS ARE FROM 29N NORTHWARD
FROM 25W EASTWARD.
PLEASE, REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS WARNING/FORECAST, AT
THE WEBSITE: HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT, FOR DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAINS
SIERRA LEONE, TO 07N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N15W, TO 06N18W
06N21W 03N32W 03N36W 02N42W. PRECIPITATION: SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 26W AND 44W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 22N BETWEEN 94W AND 95W, SOUTHWARD, INTO
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE IS
ALONG 30N97W IN TEXAS, THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA, BEYOND CENTRAL
ALABAMA.
MOSTLY FRESH, TO SOME STRONG, SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS
FROM 89W EASTWARD. MOSTLY MODERATE, TO SOME ROUGH, SEAS ARE FROM
89W EASTWARD. MODERATE SEAS ARE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. AN EXCEPTION IS FOR SLIGHT SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF
THE TAMPA FLORIDA METROPOLITAN AREA.
A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF, INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA, THROUGH
MON. THEN, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WED. LOOKING AHEAD, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE NW GULF OF MEXICO BY WED NIGHT AND DISSIPATE ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST BY EARLY THU.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N65W BEYOND 20N69W,
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 70W, TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA.
THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, TOWARD VENEZUELA. RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 15N TO
22N BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND JAMAICA.
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE WESTWARD. MODERATE SE WINDS ARE FROM THE SURFACE
TROUGH EASTWARD. MODERATE TO SOME ROUGH SEAS ARE FROM 80W
WESTWARD. SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N74W IN COLOMBIA, THROUGH THE BORDER
OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA, AND INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES, FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED
AT 15/1200 UTC, ARE: 0.15 IN TRINIDAD; AND 0.01 IN GUADELOUPE.
THIS INFORMATION IS FROM THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES/MIATPTPAN.
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE FRESH TO STRONG
NE WINDS IN THE LEE OF CUBA, AND OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH
MON MORNING. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SW N ATLANTIC WATERS
EXTENDING INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH HISPANIOLA WILL DRIFT
WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY WHILE WEAKENING. THIS
TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX ACROSS MOST OF
THE CARIBBEAN, ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS
EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN THROUGH MON. LOOKING AHEAD, A BUILDING
RIDGE N OF THE AREA WILL ENHANCE THE TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE, READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION, FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH, THE FREQUENT GUSTS TO
GALE-FORCE, AND THE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. PLEASE, READ THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION, ALSO, FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE METEO-
FRANCE AREA MARINE ZONES GALE-FORCE WINDS, AND THE SEA HEIGHTS
THAT ARE ROUGH AND HIGHER THAN ROUGH. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS
IN INCHES, FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 15/1200 UTC, ARE: 0.12 IN
FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS. THIS INFORMATION IS FROM THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES/MIATPTPAN.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS COVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. ROUGH SEAS, IN GENERAL, ARE TO THE NORTH OF 15N58W 18N43W
23N25W. MOSTLY MODERATE SEAS, WITH SOME SMALLER AREAS OF SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS, ARE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NE OF UNITED STATES AND A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT STRONG NE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS OVER MOST OF THE
WATERS WEST OF 65W. THESE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO MON. THEN, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
E WINDS WILL PREVAIL E OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH WED AS A RIDGE
BUILDS TOWARDS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LOOKING AHEAD, THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA OFFSHORE WATERS WED NIGHT
AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THU NIGHT.
MT/GR
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