710
AXNT20 KNHC 160617
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC MON DEC 16 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
WESTERN ATLANTIC LARGE NE SWELL:
LARGE NE SWELL GENERATED BY EARLIER STRONG GALE WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC IS PERSISTING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT IS
SUSTAINING SEAS OF 12 TO 16 FT NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 64W AND THE
FLORIDA COAST/BAHAMAS. FRESH TO STRONG ENE TO E WINDS ARE ALSO
PRESENT IN THE AREA. AS THIS SWELL STEADILY DECAYS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY, IT SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 12 FT BY MONDAY
EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.HTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAIL.
EASTERN ATLANTIC GALE WARNING:
METEO-FRANCE HAS ISSUED GALE WARNINGS FOR THEIR MARINE ZONES:
IRVING, MADEIRA AND CANARIAS THROUGH 16/09Z TO 16/18Z. PLEASE
REFER TO THE WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.WWMIWS.WMO.INT/INDEX.PHP/METAREAS/AFFICHE/2 FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH LIES MOSTLY OVER THE AFRICA CONTINENT. AN ITCZ
EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM OFF THE SIERRA LEONE COAST AT
06N14W THROUGH 05N30W TO 02N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED UP TO 110 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 25W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1033 MB HIGH
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TO A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR VERACRUZ,
MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO ENE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT ARE
PRESENT AT THE SOUTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL GULF, INCLUDING THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AND YUCATAN CHANNEL. MODERATE TO FRESH ENE TO SE
WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE NOTED AT THE NORTHEASTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN GULF. GENTLE TO MODERATE ENE TO ESE WINDS WITH SEAS
AT 3 TO 5 FT PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS OVER THE EASTERN GULF, INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH
MON. THEN, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WED. LOOKING AHEAD, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF BY WED NIGHT AND DISSIPATE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF BY EARLY THU. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WILL BRING GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS THU THROUGH SAT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A SURFACE TROUGH REACHES SOUTHWARD FROM A 1011 MB LOW NEAR THE
EASTERN TIP OF CUBA TO SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA AT 15N76W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE AND WATERS NEAR JAMAICA AND HAITI. CONVERGENT
TRADE WINDS ARE CAUSING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
BASIN, INCLUDING WATERS NEAR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE EVIDENT AT THE
NORTHWESTERN BASIN. GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FT
SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IN THE LEE OF CUBA, AND OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BASIN THROUGH MON MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS EXTENDING INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH
HISPANIOLA WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN THROUGH
TUE, LIKELY REACHING THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN ON WED. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE ON THE TROUGH, AND PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN MAINLY AT NIGHT MON THROUGH THU.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AT THE BEGINNING ABOUT
LARGE NE SWELL.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM A 1011 MB LOW NEAR THE
EASTERN TIP OF CUBA TO 27N68W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FLARING UP FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 58W AND 70W. CONVERGENT TRADES
ARE TRIGGERING SIMILAR CONVECTION NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FT
IN MODERATE TO LARGE MIXED SWELL ARE NOTED FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN
55W AND THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK. FOR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, GENTLE
NNE TO E WINDS AND 7 TO 11 FT SEAS IN LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL ARE
FOUND NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 35W AND 55W/64W. IN THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC FROM 04N TO 20N BETWEEN 35W AND THE LESSER ANTILLES,
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO ENE WINDS AND SEAS AT 5 TO 8 FT IN MIXED
MODERATE SWELLS EXIST. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4
TO 6 FT IN MIXED MODERATE SWELLS PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLANTIC BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED 1011 MB LOW/SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS OVER MOST OF
THE WATERS WEST OF 65W. THESE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT INTO MON. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
E WINDS WILL PREVAIL EAST OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH WED AS A RIDGE
BUILDS TOWARDS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LOOKING AHEAD, THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA OFFSHORE
WATERS WED NIGHT, REACH FROM NEAR 32N71W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY
LATE THU NIGHT AND THEN STALL. A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY QUICKLY
MERGE WITH THE STALLED FRONT LATE ON FRI, FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO
STRONG NW WINDS.
CHAN
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