932
AXNT20 KNHC 161045
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC MON DEC 16 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
WESTERN ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: LARGE NE SWELL
GENERATED BY EARLIER STRONG GALE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC IS PERSISTING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT IS
SUSTAINING SEAS OF 12 TO 16 FT NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 64W AND THE
BAHAMAS, AND ALSO NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 78W AND THE FLORIDA COAST.
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THIS AREA. THE
SWELL WILL SLOWLY DECAY TODAY ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO SUBSIDE BELOW
12 FT BY THIS EVENING PER THE LATEST WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.HTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAIL.
EASTERN ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: METEO-FRANCE HAS ISSUED GALE
WARNINGS FOR THEIR MARINE ZONES: IRVING, MADEIRA AND CANARIAS
THROUGH 16/18Z. PLEASE REFER TO THE WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.WWMIWS.WMO.INT/INDEX.PHP/METAREAS/AFFICHE/2 FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IS MOSTLY OVER AFRICA. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM OFF THE SIERRA LEONE COAST AT 06N14W
THROUGH 05N30W TO 04N40W AND TO NEAR 02N47W. NUMEROUS MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
25W AND 34W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM NORTH
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 34W AND 40W ,AND WITHIN 60 NM SOUTH OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 42W AND 45W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING STRETCHES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES TO THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE BASIN.
THE RESULTANT GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E
WINDS ALONG WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT TO EXIST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
AND EAST-CENTRAL GULF SECTIONS, INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
AND YUCATAN CHANNEL. GENERALLY, MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ARE
ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT FOR MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS OVER THE NE
PART OF THE BASIN. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT FOR HIGHER
SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE GULF FROM 22N TO
26N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS OVER THE EASTERN GULF, INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
THROUGH MON. THEN, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WED. LOOKING AHEAD, A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL REACH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF BY WED NIGHT AND DISSIPATE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF BY EARLY THU. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL BRING GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS THU THROUGH SAT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TO LOW
PRESSURE OF 1011 MB NEAR THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA AND CONTINUES
TO 15N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING CONTINUE IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AREA, AND ALSO
OVER THE WATERS NEAR JAMAICA AND THE SOUTHWEST PART OF HAITI.
CONVERGENT TRADE WINDS ARE CAUSING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN BASIN, INCLUDING WATERS NEAR PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ALONG WITH SEAS OF
OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. GENTLE TO
MODERATE NE TO E WINDS, WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT SEAS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING WESTWARD ARE
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IN THE LEE OF CUBA, AND OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THIS MORNING. A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TO THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA AND TO NEAR
15N77W WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH
TUE, LIKELY REACHING THE NW CARIBBEAN ON WED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN THE WAKE ON THE TROUGH, AND WILL ENHANCE THE TRADES TO
FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MAINLY AT NIGHT
MON THROUGH THU.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT.
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN, FROM SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA
NEAR 15N77W NORTHEASTWARD TO LOW PRESSURE OF 1011 MB NEAR THE
EASTERN TIP OF CUBA, AND CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 26N71W.
ANOTHER TROUGH IS ALONG A POSITION FROM NEAR 25N61W TO 19N64W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED FROM
19N TO 25N BETWEEN 58W AND 71W. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS
ALONG WITH SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT IN MODERATE TO LARGE MIXED SWELL
ARE NOTED FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 55W AND THE BAHAMAS. IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC, GENTLE N TO NE TO E WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FT SEAS
IN LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL ARE FOUND NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 35W AND
64W. IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 04N TO 20N BETWEEN 35W AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES, GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO ENE WINDS UNDER
RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT IN
MIXED MODERATE SWELL ARE PRESENT THERE. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE
WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT IN MIXED MODERATE SWELL REMAIN FOR THE
REST OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED 1011 MB LOW/SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS OVER MOST OF THE
WATERS WEST OF 65W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY ABATE TODAY INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS WILL PREVAIL
E OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH WED AS A RIDGE BUILDS TOWARDS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. LOOKING AHEAD, THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OFF THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST WED NIGHT, REACH FROM NEAR
32N71W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE THU NIGHT AND STALL. A
STRONG COLD FRONT MAY QUICKLY MERGE WITH THE STALLED FRONT LATE
ON FRI, FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS.
AGUIRRE
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