825
AXNT20 KNHC 171059
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC TUE DEC 17 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF SENEGAL
AND EXTENDS TO 14N18W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N17W TO 05N49W.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ.
..GULF OF MEXICO
A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND RIDGING EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH E TO NE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT ARE NOTED IN THE CENTRAL BASIN SOUTH OF 28N
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SEAS OF 3 TO
5 FT ARE OCCURRING ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH E TO NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THIS MORNING IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF, WITH MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS OCCURRING IN THE WESTERN BASIN. THEREAFTER,
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WED. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WED EVENING, AND FRESH TO STRONG N TO NW WINDS WILL
OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BY EARLY THU. LOOKING AHEAD,
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL
LEAD TO MODERATE N TO NE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ACROSS
THE BASIN THU THROUGH SAT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN ANALYZED FROM 21N82W TO THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF NICARAGUA, AND A 1009 MB IS CENTERED NEAR
09N76W. MODERATE NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN, WHERE SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT ARE NOTED.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN, WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FT
ARE NOTED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND A TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH NE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING
BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK, AND LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL
OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO THESE FEATURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. STRONG NE WINDS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES OFF THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA, THROUGH THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES
AND IN THE LEE OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO, WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS OCCURRING AT NIGHT. LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP IN AREAS
OF STRONG WIND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
RESIDUAL NE SWELL FROM RECENT GALE FORCE WINDS PERSISTS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, MAINTAINING ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 20.5N. FRESH
TO STRONG NE TO ENE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THIS AREA. FARTHER
EAST, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N36W TO 27N47W TO 28N57W, WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUING TO 31N62W. VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 12 TO 14
FT AND FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SOUTH OF THE LARGE NE SWELL, MODERATE ENE TO
E WINDS AND SEAS AT 8 TO 9 FT ARE EVIDENT FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN
35W AND 60W. IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 04N TO 20N BETWEEN 35W
AND THE LESSER ANTILLES, MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E
WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FT SEAS EXIST. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE WINDS AND
SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT IN MIXED MODERATE SWELLS PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN WEST OF 35W.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND
MULTIPLE TROUGHS IN THE BAHAMAS AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD FRESH E TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH WED. LARGE NE SWELL
GENERATED BY EARLIER GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
WILL MAINTAIN ROUGH SEAS ACROSS MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES AND CUBA TODAY BEFORE SEAS VERY SLOWLY SUBSIDE FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH LATE WED INTO THU. ELSEWHERE, A COLD FRONT IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH WED,
PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FOR AREAS NORTH OF 20N THROUGH
THU. ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THE WINDS, WITH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8
FT EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS 18N BY THIS EVENING, AS TO 14N BY
WED MORNING. SOUTH OF 20N, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST WED
NIGHT INTO THU, REACH FROM NEAR 32N76W TO SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA BY
LATE THU NIGHT AND STALL. A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY QUICKLY MERGE
WITH THE STALLED FRONT LATE ON FRI, FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NW
WINDS.
ADAMS
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