021
AXNT20 KNHC 172329 RRA
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC WED DEC 18 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2327 UTC.
.MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 06N11W AND EXTENDS
WESTWARD TO 05N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N15W TO 02N40W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED FROM 02N TO 07N
BETWEEN 40W AND 47W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
A NW-TO-SE ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 22N97W AND 19N94W.
THIS TROUGH IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF. A BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SUSTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND SEAS 2 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SE OF UNITED STATES
INTO THE GULF WATERS. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM, MAINLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH WED. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO BY WED AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BY
EARLY THU. LOOKING AHEAD, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL UNITED STATES, IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WILL LEAD TO
MODERATE N TO NE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE
BASIN THU THROUGH SAT. THEN, GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ON SUN.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS IN ASSOCIATION TO A NW- TO- SE ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH
THAT CURVES FROM BELIZE TO EASTERN HONDURAS, TO 15N83W TO 12N82W.
MODERATE NE TO E WINDS ARE OCCURRING TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN, WHERE SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN, WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FT ARE
NOTED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH THE
COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH
THU NIGHT. THE HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC MOVES EASTWARD,
EXPECT FRESH WINDS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH THU, WITH
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN NE SWELL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS
IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS FRI THROUGH SUN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OF 1034 MB LOCATED NE
OF BERMUDA AND A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN
CUBA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
N AND E OF THE BAHAMAS TO ABOUT 27N AND 64W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 31N31W, AND EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD TO 26N57W, THEN IT
BEGINS TO DISSIPATE TO 31N64W. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE
FOUND NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. FARTHER EAST, A
1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 27N29W IS SUPPORTING LIGHT TO
GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS NORTH OF 20N AND EAST OF 48W. MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS AND SEAS 6 TO 8 FT ARE FOUND SOUTH OF 20N DUE TO THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS THE TROPICS AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OF 1034 MB LOCATED NE OF BERMUDA AND A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE SE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS E OF THE BAHAMAS TO ABOUT 65W. A
COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE NE WATERS PRODUCING FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS ON
WED, BUT INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 27N BETWEEN 55W AND 70W
AS THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD. THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BY THU NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS E OF AREA. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA
COAST WED NIGHT, REACH FROM NEAR 31N74W TO SE FLORIDA FRI MORNING,
AND FROM 31N67W TO EASTERN CUBA BY SAT MORNING. THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WHILE THE SOUTH PART
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA ON SUN
MORNING.
KRV
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