953
AXNT20 KNHC 180610
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC WED DEC 18 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
.MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE, THEN RUNS WESTWARD TO 05N18W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
05N18W ACROSS 04N30W TO 04N47W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SEEN NEAR AND UP TO 80 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF
24W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS FOUND NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH.
..GULF OF MEXICO
TWO SURFACE TROUGHS ARE CAUSING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT THE
WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE CENTRAL GULF. OTHERWISE, A
SURFACE RIDGE REACHES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NEW ORLEANS TO NEAR
TAMPICO, MEXICO. MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH E WINDS AND SEAS AT
4 TO 6 FT EXIST AT THE CENTRAL GULF. GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO SE
WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E WINDS NEAR THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND MODERATE NE WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WED MORNING,
AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH
WED AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
WED EVENING, AND FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS WILL OCCUR ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THU MORNING OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES ON FRI, AND CAUSE MODERATE N TO NE WINDS ACROSS THE
GULF. LOOKING AHEAD, GENTLE TO MODERATE E WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THIS WEEKEND.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE SOUTHERN END OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN, INCLUDING THE
GULF OF HONDURAS. CONVERGENT TRADES ARE CAUSING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR HISPANIOLA. A SURFACE RIDGE RELATED TO A 1035
MB HIGH AT THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO
STRONG ENE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT AT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
BASIN. GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS ARE
NOTED AT THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN, AND WATERS NEAR COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND BUILDING LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA
WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL,
EASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI MORNING. PERIODS OF
STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA
TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. STRONG NE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
DOWNWIND OF HISPANIOLA AND THROUGH THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THU. SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS, WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS PROMPTED BY STRONG
WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. A LONG
PERIOD NE SWELL WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
PASSAGES WED INTO FRI BEFORE DIMINISHING. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO
LOCALLY MODERATE NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT ARE EXPECTED IN
THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN THROUGH FRI. LOOKING AHEAD, BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH E TO NE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN THIS WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NEAR THE AZORES ACROSS
31N29W TO 25N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING UP TO 50 NM
ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER FLORIDA IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA OFFSHORE WATERS, INCLUDING THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. CONVERGENT TRADES ARE TRIGGERING SIMILAR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS. REFER
TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN
THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
FRESH WITH LOCALLY STRONG NE TO ENE WINDS AND 9 TO 11 FT SEAS ARE
PRESENT NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 56W AND THE FLORIDA COAST/BAHAMAS,
AND NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 43W AND 56W. FOR THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC, GENTLE WITH LOCALLY MODERATE SW TO NW WINDS AND SEAS OF
5 TO 7 FT IN MODERATE NE SWELL EXIST NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 35W AND
THE COLD FRONT. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 05N TO 20N
BETWEEN 35W AND THE LESSER ANTILLES, GENTLE TO MODERATE ENE TO E
WINDS AND 6 TO 7 FT SEAS ARE EVIDENT. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE
WINDS AND SEAS AT 4 TO 6 FT IN MIXED MODERATE SWELLS PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN WEST OF 35W.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A
1035 MB HIGH IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND TROUGHING OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH E WINDS ACROSS
AREAS NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH WED, WITH STRONG WINDS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS. FARTHER EAST, THE COLD
FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THU, PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD FRESH E WINDS BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
STRONG WINDS OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT. ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES WILL OCCUR NORTH OF 15N THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK BEFORE SEAS BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
LATE THU THROUGH EARLY SAT. VERY ROUGH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 12 FT
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
ELSEWHERE, FRESH TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF
17N THROUGH THU BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TO MODERATE ON FRI. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
LATE WED INTO THU AND EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N74W TO SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA FRI MORNING, AND FROM 31N67W TO EASTERN CUBA BY SAT
MORNING. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N TO NW WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND
THE FRONT.
CHAN
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