702
AXNT20 KNHC 181041
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC WED DEC 18 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.
.MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W AND EXTENDS TO
05N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N18W TO 06N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 25W TO
32W AND FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 43W AND 54W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N89W SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN, AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH E WINDS ARE NOTED TO THE EAST OF THIS TROUGH. A
SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA TO 27N83W, WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION SURROUNDING THIS TROUGH. ELSEWHERE,
GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E WINDS WILL OCCUR
THIS MORNING TO THE EAST OF A TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL GULF. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS MORNING, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING, AND
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THU MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL
BASIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON
FRI, LEADING TO MODERATE N TO NE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF. LOOKING
AHEAD, GENTLE TO MODERATE E WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS WEEKEND.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
SOUTHEASTWARD TO 17N86W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED SURROUNDING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE TROUGH, FROM 18N TO 21W WEST OF 85W. ELSEWHERE, THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
AND BUILDING LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA IS LEADING TO FRESH
TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL, EASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.
LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA,
AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT ARE LIKELY IN THIS AREA.
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS ARE NOTED IN
THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN, AND WATERS NEAR COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.
MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE CENTRAL, EASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI
MORNING. WINDS WILL PULSE TO STRONG SPEEDS EACH NIGHT OFF THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. STRONG NE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
DOWNWIND OF HISPANIOLA AND THROUGH THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES INTO
EARLY THU. SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS, WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS PROMPTED BY STRONG
WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. A LONG
PERIOD NE SWELL WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
PASSAGES THROUGH FRI BEFORE SEAS DIMINISH. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO
LOCALLY MODERATE NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT ARE EXPECTED IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. LOOKING AHEAD, BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH E TO NE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN THIS WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N28W TO 23N56W. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG NE TO E WINDS ARE OCCURRING TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT.
LOCALLY VERY ROUGH SEAS TO 12 FT ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE, FRESH WITH LOCALLY STRONG NE TO
ENE WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FT SEAS ARE PRESENT NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN
50W AND THE FLORIDA COAST/BAHAMAS. SOUTH OF 20N, MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADES AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND TROUGHING OVER WESTERN
FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH E
WINDS ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES TODAY, WITH
STRONG WINDS ANTICIPATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. FARTHER
EAST, A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 31N28W TO 23N56W WILL PROGRESS
SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THU, PRODUCING WIDESPREAD FRESH E
WINDS BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH STRONG WINDS OCCURRING
ALONG THE FRONT. ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL
OCCUR NORTH OF 15N THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE SEAS
BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THU THROUGH EARLY
SAT. VERY ROUGH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 12 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. ELSEWHERE, FRESH TRADE
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF 15N THROUGH THU BEFORE
WINDS DIMINISH TO MODERATE SPEEDS ON FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES LATE TONIGHT INTO
THU AND EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N74W TO SE FLORIDA FRI MORNING, AND
FROM 31N67W TO EASTERN CUBA BY SAT MORNING. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG N TO NW WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT.
ADAMS
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