934
AXNT20 KNHC 182316
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC THU DEC 19 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2316 UTC.
.MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 06N10W AND EXTENDS
WESTWARD TO 05N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N19W TO 04N35W TO
02N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 02N TO
BETWEEN 31W AND 44W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N89W SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NE
YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN, AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SEAS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE, EXCEPT 4 TO 5 FT E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS TO ABOUT 85W.
FOR THE FORECAST, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING, AND MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND
DISSIPATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF FRI. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF FRI AND ALSO DISSIPATE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF LATE SUN. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND BOTH
FRONTS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS AND A MODEST INCREASE IN SEAS. LOOKING AHEAD, STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. LATE SAT THROUGH MON TO PRODUCE MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED SURROUNDING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH,
PARTICULARLY N OF 19N AND W OF 85W. ELSEWHERE, SHALLOW MOISTURE,
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS. THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW IS LEADING TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE, WITH THE
HIGHEST SEAS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS
ARE ALSO NOTED OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING THE ATLANTIC
PASSAGES. SEAS THERE ARE 6 TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN, WITH SEAS OF
3 TO 5 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 1034 MB HIGH
PRESSURE NE OF BERMUDA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN E OF 80W THROUGH FRI MORNING. WINDS WILL PULSE
TO STRONG SPEEDS EACH NIGHT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED JUST SOUTH
OF HISPANIOLA AND THROUGH THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES. ATLANTIC NE
SWELL WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES
THROUGH FRI EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
THROUGH FRI. LOOKING AHEAD, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH E TO NE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS AFFECTING THE WATERS E OF
SOUTH FLORIDA, FROM 26N TO 28N AND WEST OF 075.5W. STRONG SW TO
W WINDS ALOFT ARE HELPING TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A
SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS SPINNING NEAR 30N69W ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK TROUGH. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N27W TO 29N34W
THEN A WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 29N34W TO A WEAK LOW OF 1020
MB LOCATED NEAR 28N38W BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO ABOUT 24N47W, WHERE IT BEGINS
TO DISSIPATE TO 23N59W. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS FOLLOW THE
FRONT, WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 13 FT. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED NE OF BERMUDA AND BROAD
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ALSO SUPPORTS A LARGE AREA
OF FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS S OF 25N AND E OF THE BAHAMAS TO
ABOUT 56W, INCLUDING THE ATLANTIC EXPOSURES. SEAS ARE 8 TO 11 FT
WITHIN THESE WINDS. A RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLANTIC FORECAST WATERS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS
AND SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL BETWEEN THE
CANARY AND THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS WHERE SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NE OF BERMUDA EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO THE N
FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH E WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS
BETWEEN 25N AND THE GREATER ANTILLES TONIGHT, WITH STRONG WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. FARTHER EAST, A COLD
FRONT ANALYZED FROM 24N50W TO 24N63W WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THU, PRODUCING WIDESPREAD FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS FROM 28N
SOUTHWARD TO 18N. STRONGEST WINDS AND SEAS TO 12 FT ALONG THE
FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST TO JUST NORTH OF THE NE CARIBBEAN.
ROUGH SEAS IN NE SWELL WILL PREVAIL NORTH OF 15N THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE SEAS BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH LATE THU THROUGH EARLY SAT. ELSEWHERE, FRESH TRADE WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF 15N THROUGH THU BEFORE
WINDS DIMINISH TO MODERATE SPEEDS ON FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES LATE THU AND
STALL, THEN ENTER THE NW ZONES OFF OF FLORIDA FRI, AND REACH FROM
31N73W TO WESTERN CUBA BY SAT MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NW
WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT.
KRV
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