222
AXNT20 KNHC 190425
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC THU DEC 19 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0355 UTC.
.MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF LIBERIA
NEAR 06N10W AND EXTENDS WESTWARD TO 05N19W. THE ITCZ STRETCHES
FROM 05N19W TO 04N35W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 00N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 03N TO 05N AND BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE NW GULF OF MEXICO, EXTENDING
FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO SOUTHERN TEXAS. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT
IN THE CENTRAL GULF ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH, WHILE GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE
PASS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE FOUND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE
3-5 FT. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO FOUND IN THE SW GULF
WATERS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 90W, ALONG WITH SEAS
OF 3-5 FT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE
PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING
ON THU. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N TO NE WINDS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE N WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THU TO THE WEST OF A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N89W INTO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO FRI NIGHT AND PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
DISSIPATING LATE SUN. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS AND A MODEST
INCREASE SEAS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FRONT FRI NIGHT IN
THE NORTHERN GULF. MODERATE NE WINDS WILL THEN OCCUR ACROSS THE BASIN
ON SAT. LOOKING AHEAD, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES LATE SAT THROUGH MON, LEADING TO MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFF YUCATAN
AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO SEEN NEAR THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ELSEWHERE, MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAIL. A
BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA, FORCING FRESH TO STRONG OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FOUND
IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, OFF NW COLOMBIA. SEAS IN THESE
WATERS ARE 7-10 FT, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OCCURRING IN THE WATER
PASSAGES OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN,
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
PASSAGES THROUGH FRI AS A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW PREVAILS.
WINDS WILL PULSE TO STRONG SPEEDS OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA TONIGHT AND AGAIN THU NIGHT. SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS, WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS OF
8 TO 9 FT OCCURRING NEAR STRONG WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO
4 FT ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN THROUGH THU. LOOKING
AHEAD, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND
WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TO NE WINDS
ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED NORTH OF THE NW
BAHAMAS DUE TO DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH
ATLANTIC, WEST OF 55W, IS DOMINATED BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS
CAPTURED FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN,
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 55W AND 77W. ROUGH SEAS ARE OCCURRING IN THE
AREA DESCRIBED, PEAKING AROUND 13 FT NEAR 22N62W.
FARTHER EAST, A 1021 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED NEAR
30N38W AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THIS LOW TO 19N42W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EVIDENT AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO WITHIN 120 NM. STRONG TO LOCALLY NEAR
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA NORTH OF
29N AND BETWEEN 34W AND 40W. GALE-FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY
OCCURRING WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. MARINERS SHOULD USE
CAUTION.
THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC ARE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NE-E WINDS ARE PRESENT NORTH OF 20N AND EAST OF
55W. ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED IN THESE WATERS. MAINLY FRESH NE-E WINDS
AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE OBSERVED SOUTH OF 20N AND WEST OF
50W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, A WIDE SWATH OF FRESH NE TO SE WINDS
WILL OCCUR THROUGH THU FOR AREAS NORTH OF 15N AND WEST OF 55W AS
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC, A DECAYING COLD FRONT IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW. STRONG E TO NE WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT
THROUGH THU MORNING FROM 18N TO 27N EAST OF 67W. VERY ROUGH SEAS
OF 12 TO 13 FT WILL OCCUR NEAR THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS. ROUGH
SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL PREVAIL NORTH OF 15N THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE SEAS BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH LATE THU THROUGH EARLY SAT. SOUTH OF 15N, MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU
BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TO MODERATE SPEEDS ON FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES LATE THU AND
STALL, THEN ENTER THE NW ZONES OFF OF FLORIDA FRI, AND REACH FROM
31N71W TO WESTERN CUBA BY SAT MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NW
WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT. LOOKING AHEAD, WIDESPREAD FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS
AREAS NORTH OF 20N EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DELGADO
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