521
AXNT20 KNHC 191042
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC THU DEC 19 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.
.MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W AND EXTENDS TO
06N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N16W TO 02N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 27W AND
44W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
AT 0600 UTC, A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM THE PANHANDLE OF
FLORIDA NEAR 30N86W, EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO FAR NORTHERN
MEXICO NEAR 26N97W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE. MODERATE TO FRESH N ARE OCCURRING
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE NORTHERN GULF. MODERATE TO
FRESH NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO, WITH GENTLE WINDS NOTED ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE BASIN, WITH LOCAL SEAS TO 5 FT
OCCURRING NEAR THE FRONT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY BEFORE WEAKENING ON FRI. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG N TO NE WINDS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE, MODERATE N TO NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
BASIN TODAY. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO FRI NIGHT AND PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE SUN. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N
WINDS AND A MODEST INCREASE IN SEAS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND
THIS FRONT FRI NIGHT IN THE NORTHERN GULF. MODERATE NE WINDS WILL
THEN OCCUR ACROSS THE BASIN ON SAT. LOOKING AHEAD, BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES LATE SAT THROUGH MON, LEADING TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS
ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM BELIZE INTO FAR NORTHERN HONDURAS,
AND A 1008 MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHERN COLOMBIA. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TROUGH. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
IS SUPPORTING FRESH E TO NE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN THROUGH
EASTERN CARIBBEAN, WITH LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS OCCURRING OFF THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. MODERATE NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BASIN. SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT ARE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BASIN, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWESTERN SEA WHERE SEAS OF 2
TO 4 FT ARE NOTED. LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT PREVAIL IN
AREAS OF STRONG WINDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
EASTERN, CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC PASSAGES THROUGH FRI AS A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
PREVAILS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC AND THE
COLOMBIAN LOW. WINDS WILL PULSE TO STRONG SPEEDS OFFSHORE OF
COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. SEAS OF 4
TO 7 FT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS, WITH LOCALLY
ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT OCCURRING NEAR STRONG WINDS IN THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS AND SEAS
OF 2 TO 4 FT ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND WILL LEAD
TO GENERALLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TO NE WINDS ACROSS THE
BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PROMOTE FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A 1036 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 39N44W, AND
RIDGING DOMINATES MUCH OF THE BASIN. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD FRESH E TO NE WINDS NORTH OF 15N.
STRONG E WINDS ARE OCCURRING FROM 19N TO 28N BETWEEN 47W AND 66W.
ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS, AND LOCALLY VERY
ROUGH SEAS TO 13 FT PREVAIL NEAR STRONG WINDS. SOUTH OF 15N,
MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT DOMINATE. A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED NEAR 30N38W AND A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 23N39W, WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUING TO 19N42W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY VERY
ROUGH SEAS TO 13 FT ARE WRAPPING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SYSTEM. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 31W AND 37W. GALE-FORCE WIND
GUSTS ARE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE,
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING EAST OF THE BAHAMAS.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, A WIDE SWATH OF FRESH NE TO SE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR AREAS NORTH OF 15N AND WEST OF 55W AS A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW. STRONG E TO NE WINDS WILL
OCCUR THROUGH THIS MORNING FROM 18N TO 27N EAST OF 67W. VERY ROUGH
SEAS OF 12 TO 13 FT WILL OCCUR NEAR THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS.
ROUGH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL PREVAIL NORTH OF 15N TODAY
BEFORE SEAS BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT. SOUTH OF 15N, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL TODAY BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TO
MODERATE SPEEDS ON FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES LATE TONIGHT AND STALL, THEN ENTER
THE NW ZONES OFF OF FLORIDA FRI, AND REACH FROM 31N68W TO WESTERN
CUBA BY SAT MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NW WINDS WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT. LOOKING AHEAD, WIDESPREAD FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS AREAS NORTH
OF 20N EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ADAMS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page