029
AXNT20 KNHC 191739
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC THU DEC 19 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1800 UTC.
.MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 03N10E AND EXTENDS TO
04N03W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N03W TO 05.5N13.5W TO 00N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN
26W AND 47W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
AT 1200 UTC, A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
REGION TO THE NE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 24N98W, WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
PARALLELING THE MEXICAN COAST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 24N84W TO 22N87W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NOTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE FEATURES. MODERATE
TO FRESH N WINDS ARE OCCURRING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE
NORTHERN GULF. MODERATE NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE CENTRAL
THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO, WITH GENTLE WINDS NOTED
ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NE MEXICO NEAR LA PESCA WILL PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY BEFORE WEAKENING ON FRI THEN DISSIPATING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF ON SAT. FRESH N TO NE WINDS WILL OCCUR
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE BASIN TODAY.
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
FRI NIGHT AND PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
DISSIPATING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF LATE SUN. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG N WINDS AND A MODEST INCREASE SEAS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND
BEHIND THIS FRONT FRI NIGHT IN THE NORTHERN GULF. MODERATE NE
WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN ON SAT. LOOKING AHEAD,
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES LATE SAT THROUGH MON, LEADING TO MODERATE NE
TO E WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM BELIZE EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO
NEAR 15N83W, PARALLELING THE COASTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TROUGH. THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH
ALSO EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN, AND IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES AND HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH E TO NE
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN THROUGH EASTERN CARIBBEAN, WITH
LOCALLY STRONG ENE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. MODERATE NE
WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN. MODERATE SEAS ARE
NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NW
CARIBBEAN WHERE SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT ARE NOTED. LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS OF
8 TO 9 FT PREVAIL IN AREAS OF STRONG WINDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
EASTERN, CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC PASSAGES THROUGH FRI MORNING AS A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND
THE COLOMBIAN LOW PREVAILS. WINDS WILL PULSE TO STRONG SPEEDS
OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND WILL
LEAD TO GENERALLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TO NE WINDS ACROSS
THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
PROMOTE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A 1038 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 42N29W, AND
RIDGING DOMINATES MUCH OF THE BASIN. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD FRESH E TO NE WINDS NORTH OF 15N.
STRONG E WINDS ARE OCCURRING FROM 21N TO 27N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W.
ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS, AND LOCALLY VERY
ROUGH SEAS TO 13 FT PREVAIL IN AREAS OF STRONG WINDS. SOUTH OF
15N, MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT DOMINATE. A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED NEAR 31N38W AND A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 23N39W, WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUING TO 19N42W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY VERY
ROUGH SEAS TO 13 FT ARE WRAPPING ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 24N TO 31N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.
GALE-FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION.
ELSEWHERE, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AND NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, A BROAD FETCH OF FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR AREAS NORTH OF 15N
AND BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND 55W, AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
PREVAILS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND
THE COLOMBIAN LOW. VERY ROUGH SEAS TO 12 FT WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON FROM 18N TO 24N EAST OF 68W WITH STRONGEST WINDS.
ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 15N TODAY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT. SOUTH OF 15N,
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL TODAY
BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TO MODERATE SPEEDS ON FRI. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES LATE
TONIGHT AND STALL, THEN ENTER THE NW ZONES OFF OF FLORIDA ON FRI,
AND REACH FROM 31N68W TO WESTERN CUBA BY SAT MORNING, THEN WEAKEN
FROM 31N60W TO NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SUN MORNING. FRESH TO
STRONG N TO NW WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 28N. LOOKING
AHEAD, WIDESPREAD FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF 20N EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE WEAKENING
FRONT.
ADAMS
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