620
AXNT20 KNHC 200439
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC FRI DEC 20 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0355 UTC.
.MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
LIBERIA NEAR 06N10W AND EXTENDS WESTWARD TO 05N20W. THE ITCZ
STRETCHES FROM 05N20W TO 04N35W AND TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 03N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 03N TO 08N AND
BETWEEN 27W AND 36W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 27N82W TO
26N90W, THEN BECOMING A STATIONARY FRONT TO SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS
NEAR 22N98W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, AREAS OF MARINE FOG ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF WATERS. VISIBILITY MAY DECREASE
BELOW 1 NM AND MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO USE CAUTION. HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO, RESULTING IN
MODERATE TO FRESH N-NE WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF AND BAY OF
CAMPECHE. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 3-5 FT. MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING ON FRI ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GULF, AND DISSIPATING NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON SAT. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH
FRI. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF FRI NIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND BEHIND
THIS FRONT IN THE NORTHERN GULF FRI NIGHT. MODERATE NE TO E WINDS
ARE THEN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTS
WEAKEN AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER EASTERN MEXICO.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND SW
CARIBBEAN WATERS, WHILE GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FOUND
ELSEWHERE. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NE ATLANTIC EXTENDS
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE BASIN, SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS
IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 6-9 FT.
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6-9 FT ARE
NOTED IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE HIGHEST SEAS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL ENTERING THE NE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH ATLANTIC PASSAGES. IN THE REST OF THE BASIN,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH E TO NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL THROUGH EASTERN CARIBBEAN, AS WELL AS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
PASSAGES THROUGH FRI MORNING AS A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
PREVAILS BETWEEN THE COLOMBIAN LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. PULSING STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA
AND OFFSHORE OF NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA WILL OCCUR INTO FRI MORNING,
AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THESE WINDS.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN
FRI THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN.
LOOKING AHEAD, HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A SERIES OF COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. A BUILDING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL LEAD TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO
E WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINAS TO
EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA, WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO EASTERN CUBA. DIVERGENCE ALOFT SUPPORTS
SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO 69W. THE REMAINDER
OF THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC, WEST OF 55W, IS DOMINATED BY A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NE ATLANTIC. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE PASS CAPTURED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS
OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 55W AND 75W. ROUGH
SEAS ARE OCCURRING IN THE AREA DESCRIBED, PEAKING AROUND 11 FT
NEAR 22N55W. MARINE FOG IS OCCURRING IN THE WATERS OFF NE FLORIDA
AND VISIBILITY MAY DECREASE BELOW 1 NM. MARINERS ARE URGED TO USE
CAUTION NAVIGATING THESE WATERS.
FARTHER EAST, A 1015 MB NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED
NEAR 32N42W AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM 31N36W TO 19N42W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EVIDENT AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO WITHIN 120 NM. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA NORTH OF 20N AND
EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SEAS IN THE AREA DESCRIBED ARE 7-10
FT. FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE N-NW WINDS AND SEAS OF 10-15 FT ARE
FOUND NORTH OF 29N AND BETWEEN 42W AND 48W.
THE RIDGE ALSO SUSTAINS FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF 28N AND BETWEEN 45W AND
55W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 7-11 FT. SATELLITE IMAGES DEPICT AN
OUTBREAK OF SAHARAN DUST OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND THIS DRY
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, WIDESPREAD FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E TO
NE WINDS OCCURRING NORTH OF 15N AND EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. ROUGH SEAS IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED REGION WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH EARLY SAT. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO
31N76W WILL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH FRI BEFORE REACHING
FROM 31N68W TO WESTERN CUBA BY SAT MORNING, THEN WEAKEN FROM
31N59W TO NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SUN MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG W
TO NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 28N.
LOOKING AHEAD, WIDESPREAD FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF 20N SUN NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION BEHIND THE WEAKENING FRONT.
DELGADO
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