749
AXNT20 KNHC 201051
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC FRI DEC 20 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.
.MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 05N08W AND EXTENDS TO
05N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N17W TO 02N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 04N TO 07N AND BETWEEN 28W
AND 35W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO 23N90W, AND A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 23N98W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO, RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH
N-NE WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE. SEAS IN
THESE WATERS ARE 3-5 FT. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND
DRIFT SOUTHWARD TODAY, AND DISSIPATE NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON
SAT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE BASIN THROUGH TONIGHT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FRONT IN THE NORTHERN GULF LATE
TONIGHT. MODERATE NE TO E WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTS WEAKEN AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER
EASTERN MEXICO.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 10N TO 15N WEST
OF 81W, AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OFF THE COAST OF
PANAMA. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 10.5N75W, AND FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE LOW. ROUGH SEAS OF
8 TO 9 FT ARE OCCURRING NEAR STRONG WINDS. ELSEWHERE, RIDGING
EXTENDS OVER THE BASIN, AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES IS SUPPORTING FRESH E WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL THROUGH
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE OCCURRING THROUGH THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS, AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS IN N SWELL ARE
ENTERING THE NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH ATLANTIC PASSAGES. IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BASIN, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH E TO NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL THROUGH EASTERN CARIBBEAN, AS WELL AS THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC PASSAGES TODAY. PULSING STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF
VENEZUELA AND OFFSHORE OF NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA WILL OCCUR THIS
MORNING, AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THESE WINDS.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN
THIS WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. LOOKING AHEAD,
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A SERIES OF COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. A BUILDING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES WILL LEAD TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS, WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TO EASTERN CUBA. DIVERGENCE ALOFT SUPPORTS SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO 68W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC, WEST OF 55W, IS DOMINATED
BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NE ATLANTIC. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS ARE NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN,
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 45W AND 75W. ROUGH SEAS ARE OCCURRING IN THE
AREA DESCRIBED, PEAKING AROUND 11 FT. ELSEWHERE, A 1009 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 31N43W AND A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 31N36W TO 17N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG CONVECTION IS EVIDENT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
WITHIN 120 NM. FRESH TO STRONG W TO NW WINDS ARE NOTED TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW, WHERE PEAK SEAS OF 12 TO 16
FT ARE OCCURRING.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, WIDESPREAD FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E
TO NE WINDS OCCURRING NORTH OF 15N AND EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WEAKENS AND DRIFTS EASTWARD. ROUGH SEAS IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED REGION WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH EARLY SAT. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS
TO 31N76W WILL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TODAY BEFORE REACHING
FROM 31N68W TO WESTERN CUBA BY SAT MORNING, THEN WEAKEN FROM
31N59W TO CENTRAL CUBA SUN MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG W TO NW WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 28N. LOOKING
AHEAD, WIDESPREAD FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF 20N SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND
THE WEAKENING FRONT.
ADAMS
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