375
AXNT20 KNHC 070453
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC TUE JAN 7 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0400 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: N OF 29N, GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ON BOTH SIDES OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N77W TO
NE FLORIDA. THESE GALES EXTEND E TO AROUND 70W AND ARE ACCOMPANIED
BY SEAS OF UP TO 14 FT. GALES WILL SPREAD EAST AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES, WITH THE BOUNDARY REACHING FROM 31N58W TO CENTRAL CUBA
BY TUE EVENING. GALES WILL END TUE NIGHT AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
WEAKEN, BUT SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
INTO AREA WATERS INTO LATE WEEK, BRINGING SEAS OF 12 TO 20 FT N OF
25N. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING A THREAT OF GALE
CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK.
GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE FAR
SE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING. IN ITS WAKE, GALE FORCE NW WINDS
PREVAIL OFFSHORE VERACRUZ, MEXICO, ALONG WITH SEAS OF UP TO 11 FT.
WINDS WILL FALL BELOW GALE FORCE TUE MORNING AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
INTO THE BASIN. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TUE.
ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL: LARGE, LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH
PERIOD OF 14 TO 16 SECONDS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 31N35W TO 22N53W. PEAK SEAS ALONG 31N, E
OF 60W, ARE NEAR 20-21 FT, WITH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 12 FT EXTENDING
S TO 25N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT SWELL,
PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT DEPICTED THE THE ATLANTIC
GALE WARNING SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE, WILL PROPAGATE INTO
THE REGION BY WED, PROLONGING THE VERY ROUGH SEAS THROUGH LATE
WEEK.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST, ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, AT THE WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML, FOR MORE DETAILS ON
THE AREAS ABOVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM NEAR 05N11W TO 03N30W TO 01N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 00N TO 07N BETWEEN
20W AND 42W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
A GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF OF MEXICO.
AWAY FROM THE GALES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION, STRONG N TO NW WINDS AND SEAS OF 9
TO 11 FT ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE BASIN AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS. A TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON WED, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. A LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
NW GULF BY THU BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SEASONAL MID-LATITUDE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERS AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OF THE DEEP TROPICS IS
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD FRESH NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE PULSING OFFSHORE
COLOMBIA. MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL IN THE SW BASIN, WITH LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS IN THE NW. SEAS ARE 4 TO 7 FT, EXCEPT 3 TO 5 FT IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ONGOING JUST
OFFSHORE NICARAGUA, COSTA RICA, AND PANAMA MAINLY DUE TO COASTAL
CONVERGENCE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH WINDS WILL DIMINISH INTO TUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE N OF THE AREA SHIFTS EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN LATER TONIGHT. THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BELIZE BY TUE EVENING,
AND FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY WED
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING WED NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, SUPPORTING MODERATE
TO FRESH NE WINDS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON THE GALE WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
SIGNIFICANT SWELL TO THE EAST.
ASIDE FROM THE AREAS IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION, RIDGING
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC,
ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NE OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS. THIS IS LEADING TO MAINLY GENTLE WINDS FOR REMAINING
WATERS N OF 20N, AND SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT. OTHERWISE, A 1019 MB HIGH
IS CENTERED ENE OF THE BAHAMAS AND S OF BERMUDA. ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES DOMINATE, AND SEAS ARE
5 TO 8 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE FAR NE
WATERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. STRONG TO GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS
PREVAIL OFF NE FLORIDA, AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE THE U.S. COAST TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM NEAR 31N70W TO WESTERN CUBA BY TUE MORNING, AND FROM 31N55W
TO SE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA TUE NIGHT. STRONG TO GALE-FORCE
WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT N OF 29N. ANOTHER SWELL EVENT, WITH
VERY ROUGH SEAS IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, AFFECTING
MAINLY THE WATERS N OF 29N ON TUE, AND PROPAGATING ACROSS THE AREA
N OF 27N AND E OF 70W ON WED. GALE CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONT ARE FORECAST TO END BY TUE NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE-FORCE WINDS
TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS N OF 29N BY THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
KONARIK
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