027
AXNT20 KNHC 071008
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC TUE JAN 7 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: N OF 30N, GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ON BOTH SIDES OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N74W TO
27N80W. THESE GALES EXTEND E TO AROUND 65W AND ARE ACCOMPANIED BY
SEAS OF UP TO 16 FT. GALES WILL SPREAD EAST AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES, WITH THE BOUNDARY REACHING FROM 31N58W TO CENTRAL CUBA
BY THIS EVENING. GALES WILL END TONIGHT AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
WEAKEN, BUT SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
INTO AREA WATERS INTO LATE WEEK, BRINGING SEAS OF 12 TO 20 FT N OF
25N. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING A THREAT OF GALE
CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK.
ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: LARGE, LONG PERIOD NW SWELL
WITH PERIOD OF 14 TO 16 SECONDS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 31N32W TO 23N46W. PEAK SEAS ALONG 31N, E OF
60W, ARE NEAR 19-20 FT, WITH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 12 FT EXTENDING S
TO 25N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT SWELL,
PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT DEPICTED THE THE ATLANTIC
GALE WARNING SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE, WILL PROPAGATE INTO
THE REGION BY WED, PROLONGING THE VERY ROUGH SEAS THROUGH LATE
WEEK.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST, ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, AT THE WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML, FOR MORE DETAILS ON
THE AREAS ABOVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM NEAR 05N15W TO 00N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE WHOLE BOUNDARY.
GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG TO NEAR-GALE N TO NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ACROSS THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS
ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA. ROUGH SEAS ARE
NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN, WHILE MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL N OF 26N AND S OF 24N.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
GULF ON WED, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUPPORTING FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A LOW MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NW GULF BY THU BRINGING
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SEASONAL MID-LATITUDE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERS AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OF THE DEEP TROPICS IS
LEADING TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. STRONG WINDS ARE PULSING OVER THE WATERS OFFSHORE
COLOMBIA. MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL IN THE SW BASIN, WITH LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS IN THE NW. SEAS ARE 4 TO 7 FT, EXCEPT 3 TO 5 FT IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ONGOING JUST
OFFSHORE NICARAGUA, COSTA RICA, AND PANAMA MAINLY DUE TO COASTAL
CONVERGENCE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL
DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA SHIFTS EASTWARD
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BELIZE BY THIS
EVENING, AND FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY
WED MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING WED NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH N TO
NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, SUPPORTING MODERATE
TO FRESH NE WINDS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON THE GALE WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT TO THE EAST.
ASIDE FROM THE AREAS IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION, RIDGING
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC,
ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NE OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS. THIS IS LEADING TO GENTLE WINDS FOR REMAINING WATERS N
OF 20N, AND SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT. OTHERWISE, A 1018 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED E OF THE BAHAMAS AND S OF BERMUDA. ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES DOMINATE, AND SEAS ARE 5 TO 8
FT.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, THE GALE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SE
BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT. THE SWELL EVENT, WITH VERY
ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, AFFECTING THE
WATERS N OF 29N, AND PROPAGATING ACROSS THE AREA N OF 27N AND E OF
70W ON WED. GALE CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT ARE
FORECAST TO END BY TONIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE-FORCE WINDS TO THE OFFSHORE
WATERS N OF 29N BY THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
ERA
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