994
AXNT20 KNHC 072150
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC WED JAN 8 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC GALE WARNINGS: N OF 30N, GALE FORCE WINDS ARE MAINLY
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM EAST OF BERMUDA
NEAR 31N62.5W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W. THESE GALES EXTEND E
TO AROUND 59W AND ARE ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS OF UP TO 16 FT.
MEANWHILE, SURROUNDING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS COVER THE WATERS
NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 45W. GALES WILL SPREAD EAST AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N50W TO 24N70W WED
MORNING WHEN THE GALES WILL DIMINISH. SIGNIFICANT SWELL GREATER
THAN 12 FT WILL CONTINUE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOOKING
AHEAD, ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRING A THREAT OF GALE
CONDITIONS STARTING THU AFTERNOON WHEN THAT NEXT FRONT IS FORECAST
TO REACH FROM 31N63W TO 25N73W.
ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: LARGE, LONG PERIOD NW SWELL
WITH PERIOD OF 14 TO 17 SECONDS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
ANALYZED FROM 31N28W TO 27N34W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A REMNANT
FRONTAL TROUGH TO 21.5N55W. PEAK SEAS ALONG 31N BETWEEN 35W AND
50W ARE NEAR 19 TO 20 FT, WITH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 12 FT EXTENDING
SOUTH TO 21N BETWEEN 26W AND 60W. ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT SWELL,
PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT DEPICTED THE THE ATLANTIC
GALE WARNING SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE, WILL PROPAGATE INTO
THE REGION, PROLONGING THE VERY ROUGH SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
WEEK.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST, ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, AT THE WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML, FOR MORE DETAILS ON
THE AREAS ABOVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND OVER AFRICA. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM NEAR 06N10W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 32W, THEN CONTINUING TO THE
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03S42W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITHIN 360 NM OF THE ENTIRE BOUNDARY, MAINLY TO THE NORTH
OF IT.
GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG NW TO N WINDS ARE OFFSHORE VERACRUZ DUE TO A LINGERING AND
LOCALLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT, WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION LAST NIGHT. SEAS ARE 6
TO 9 FT IN REMNANT NORTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE GULF, AND 4 TO 7 FT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG N TO NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN GULF BY WED, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS
THROUGH THU. A LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NW
GULF BY THU, WITH A POTENTIAL COLD FRONT FORMING BY FRI. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND INCREASING
SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL CUBA TO NEAR NORTHERN BELIZE. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT, ALONG WITH 5 TO 8 FT SEAS IN NW-N
SWELL, HIGHEST NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. WINDS ARE MAINLY MODERATE
ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN, EXCEPT FRESH IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PORTION DUE TO THE NORMAL, LOCALLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS
ARE 4 TO 7 FT SOUTH OF 18N AND EAST OF 83W, WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS
NORTHWEST OF THERE, JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING JUST OFFSHORE
NICARAGUA, COSTA RICA, AND PANAMA MAINLY DUE TO COASTAL
CONVERGENCE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL
CUBA TO SOUTHERN BELIZE TONIGHT, AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY WED
NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PULSE IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON THE GALE WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A
SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT TO THE EAST.
ASIDE FROM THE AREAS IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION, RIDGING
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC,
EXTENDING FROM THE IBERIAN PENINSULA TO ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS,
ALL THE WAY TO NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. THIS IS LEADING
TO GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS RIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE,
WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES TO THE SOUTH OF IT FROM THE WEST-
CENTRAL COAST OF AFRICA THROUGH THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS, TO THE
WATERS SOUTH OF 16N AND EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. WHILE
LARGE, NW SWELLS DOMINATE MOST OF THE BASIN, AS DESCRIBED IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION, SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE WATERS OVER FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE CURRENTLY GALE-FORCE FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM 31N50W TO 24N70W WED MORNING. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
END EARLY WED MORNING WHILE THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS MOVE EAST OF
55W LATER ON WED. MEANWHILE, A SWELL EVENT WITH WITH VERY ROUGH
SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH WED NIGHT NORTH OF
27N. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF GALE-FORCE WINDS TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF 29N AND EAST
OF 65W BY THU INTO FRI. THIS WILL ALSO REINFORCE THE SWELL EVENT,
WITH VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS PERSISTING IN WATERS NORTH OF 18N
AND EAST OF 77W THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A THIRD FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS
WEEKEND COULD BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASING WINDS AND
SEAS.
LEWITSKY
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