750
AXNT20 KNHC 080441
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC WED JAN 8 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0430 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC GALE WARNINGS: N OF 30N, GALE FORCE WINDS ARE MAINLY
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM EAST OF BERMUDA
NEAR 31N58W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N77W. THESE GALES EXTEND E TO
AROUND 55W AND ARE ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS TO 16 FT. GALES WILL
SPREAD EAST WITH THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N50W TO
24N70W WED MORNING. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL END BY EARLY WED MORNING
WHILE THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS MOVE EAST OF 55W LATER ON WED.
SIGNIFICANT SWELL GREATER THAN 12 FT WILL CONTINUE MOVING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MAY BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF GALE- FORCE WINDS TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS N OF 29N AND E
OF 65W BY THU INTO FRI. THIS WILL ALSO REINFORCE THE SWELL EVENT,
WITH VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS PERSISTING IN WATERS N OF 18N AND E
OF 77W THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: LARGE, LONG PERIOD NW SWELL
WITH PERIOD OF 14 TO 17 SECONDS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
ANALYZED FROM 31N25W TO 27N33W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A REMNANT
FRONTAL TROUGH TO 21N54W. PEAK SEAS ALONG 31N BETWEEN 35W AND 50W
ARE TO 16 FT, WITH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 12 FT EXTENDING NORTH OF 21N
BETWEEN 23W AND 72W. ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT SWELL, PARTIALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT DEPICTED THE THE ATLANTIC GALE
WARNING SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE, WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE
REGION AND PROLONG THE VERY ROUGH SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS
WEEK.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST, ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, AT THE WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML, FOR MORE DETAILS ON
THE AREAS ABOVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND OVER AFRICA. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM NEAR 06N10W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03S42W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ.
GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG NW WINDS CONTINUE OFFSHORE VERACRUZ DUE TO A LOCALLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT. STRONG NE WINDS ARE ALSO FOUND IN THE NW GULF
OF MEXICO OFFSHORE TEXAS. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE ANALYZED
IN REMAINING GULF WATERS, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION. SEAS ARE 4-7 FT ACROSS THE BASIN, WITH LOCALLY 8 FT SEAS
IN THE STRONG WINDS OFFSHORE VERACRUZ.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG N TO NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD, RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN GULF BY WED, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS
THROUGH THU. A LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NW
GULF BY THU, WITH A POTENTIAL COLD FRONT FORMING BY FRI. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND INCREASING
SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL
CUBA TO NORTHERN BELIZE. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS FOLLOW THE
FRONT, WITH 4-7 FT SEAS. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SOUTH OF JAMAICA. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E TO
NE WINDS ARE IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA, AS DETECTED BY SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS IN
THIS AREA PEAK TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE, TRADES ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE
IN THE CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE 4-7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING E
WHILE WEAKENING, THEN DISSIPATE BY WED NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH N
TO NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, SUPPORTING MODERATE
TO FRESH NE WINDS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS PULSE IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON THE GALE WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A
SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT TO THE EAST.
SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT ARE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 57W AND 75W IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC; MODERATE N TO NW WINDS PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THIS
AREA WITH 4-7 FT SEAS. ALL TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC
WATERS EAST OF 57W ARE ANALYZED TO HAVE SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT,
INCREASING WITH LATITUDE AND PROXIMITY TO THE ABOVE DESCRIBED
SPECIAL FEATURES. TRADES ARE MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTH OF 15N, AND
MAINLY GENTLE NORTH OF 15N. SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER INDICATES A
RIDGE AXIS WITH WEAK WINDS IS ALONG 23N IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE CURRENTLY GALE-FORCE FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM 31N50W TO 24N70W WED MORNING. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
END BY EARLY WED MORNING WHILE THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS MOVE EAST
OF 55W LATER ON WED. MEANWHILE, A SWELL EVENT WITH WITH VERY
ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH WED NIGHT N OF
27N. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE-
FORCE WINDS TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS N OF 29N AND E OF 65W BY THU
INTO FRI. THIS WILL ALSO REINFORCE THE SWELL EVENT, WITH VERY
ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS PERSISTING IN WATERS N OF 18N AND E OF 77W
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A THIRD FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND COULD
BRING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS.
MAHONEY
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