934
AXNT20 KNHC 091008
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC THU JAN 9 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N47W TO 20N70W.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY STALL FROM NEAR
31N43W TO NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE A
REINFORCING FRONT DIVES SOUTH OF 31N, EXTENDING FROM NEAR BERMUDA
TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THEN. GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
NEW FRONT, ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF 28N AND EAST OF 70W ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE REINFORCING FRONT WILL QUICKLY REACH
FROM 31N45W TO NEAR PUERTO RICO BY FRI AFTERNOON WITH GALES
CONTINUING ON EITHER SIDE, WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED GALES
FINALLY WEAKENING/DIMINISHING BY SAT AFTERNOON AS IT EXTENDS FROM
31N35W TO NEAR THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA. LOOKING AHEAD, YET ANOTHER
FRONT MAY MOVE OFF THE SE UNITED STATES LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT. THOSE
GALE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PUSH EASTWARD WITH THE FRONT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, MAINLY NORTH OF 29N.
GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING: A FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OFF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING, AND THEN INTENSIFY THROUGH FRI. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG TO GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF TONIGHT THROUGH FRI, AND FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF FRI THROUGH SAT.
SEAS IN THESE AREAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH. IN
ADDITION, THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE
STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE NW TO N WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS OVER
THE WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN GULF FRI THROUGH SAT.
ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: LARGE LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL
WITH WAVE PERIODS OF 14 TO 16 SECONDS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC. NW SWELL SUPPORTS SEAS
OF 12 TO 17 FT N OF 26N BETWEEN 34W AND 68W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS, THEN A NEW SET
OF NW SWELL WILL QUICKLY MOVE LATER TODAY, WITH SEAS OF 12 FT OR
GREATER NORTH OF 25N AND EAST OF 76W BY THIS EVENING, UP TO 20 FT
NEAR 31N57W. BY FRI EVENING, SEAS OF 12 FT OR GREATER WILL COVER
THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS NORTH OF 21N BETWEEN 33W AND 71W, WITH
20 TO 23 FT SEAS NORTH OF 39N BETWEEN 48W AND 63W BY THEN. SEAS OF
12 FT OR GREATER ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT THE WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML, FOR MORE DETAILS ON
THE AREAS ABOVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N11W TO 04N19W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 01S35W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-06N AND E OF 33W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
A GALE WARNING THAT IS IN PLACE FOR THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS.
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE GULF DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND TROUGHING
PRESENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE 8 TO
11 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH N-NE WINDS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE REST OF
THE GULF AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE GENERALLY 3 TO 6 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING, AND THEN INTENSIFY THROUGH FRI. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BRING STRONG TO GALE- FORCE WINDS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
TONIGHT THROUGH FRI, AND FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF FRI THROUGH SAT. SEAS IN THESE AREAS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE BASIN PRODUCING
STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE NW TO N WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS OVER
THE WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN GULF FRI THROUGH SAT.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL SUSTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. STRONG WINDS ARE
PULSING OFFSHORE NW COLOMBIA DUE TO LOCALLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT, WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADES ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN, ALONG WITH 3 TO 5 FT
SEAS. A SURFACE TO LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IS ANALYZED IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN ALONG 67W. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROKEN TO
SCATTERED TO LOW CLOUDS FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 64W AND 70W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE CLOUDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE NW OF THE AREA WILL BUILD
EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
CAUSING THESE WINDS AND SEAS TO ALSO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. IN ADDITION, WINDS AT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN
WILL PULSE TO STRONG AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERLY WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND ON AN
ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT IMPACTING A LARGE PORTION OF
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN WATERS.
THE COLD FRONT DISCUSSED ABOVE FROM 31N47W TO 20N70W, HAS FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS ON EITHER SIDE, MAINLY N OF 28N. SEAS OF 8 FT OR
GREATER ARE NORTH OF 23N AND EAST OF 75W, WITH 4 TO 7 FT SEAS
SOUTH AND WEST OF THERE TO THE COAST INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. TO THE
EAST OF THE FRONT, A RIDGE DOMINATES THE OPEN WATERS STRETCHING
FROM NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO JUST NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO. LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE FOUND RIGHT UNDER
THE RIDGE, WITH MAINLY MODERATE NE-E WINDS TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH
OF IT. SEAS ARE MAINLY 4 TO 7 FT SOUTH OF 23N AND WEST OF 54W,
AND 8 FT OR GREATER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS WILL
PERSIST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT NORTH OF 28N THROUGH TODAY. MEANWHILE,
LARGE LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL WILL CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA N OF 26N. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
STRONG TO GALE-FORCE W TO NW WINDS NORTH OF 27N AND EAST OF 70W
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT. THIS WILL ALSO PROLONG VERY ROUGH TO
HIGH SEAS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
IN THE LONG TERM, A THIRD FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND COULD BRING
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS EAST OF FLORIDA
AND NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS.
ERA
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