253
AXNT20 KNHC 091624
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC THU JAN 9 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1624 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N42W TO
NORTHEAST HISPANIOLA. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH FRI,
AHEAD OF A REINFORCING FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTED GALE-FORCE WINDS NORTH
OF 29N BETWEEN 69W AND 75W. WINDS TO GALE FORCE AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL FOLLOW THE DEVELOPING REINFORCING FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS
BETWEEN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND BERMUDA TODAY, AND SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA TONIGHT AND FRI. THE REINFORCING FRONT WILL QUICKLY REACH
FROM 31N45W TO NEAR PUERTO RICO BY FRI AFTERNOON WITH GALES
CONTINUING ON EITHER SIDE, WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED GALES
FINALLY WEAKENING/DIMINISHING BY SAT AS IT EXTENDS FROM 31N35W TO
NEAR THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA. LOOKING AHEAD, YET ANOTHER FRONT MAY
MOVE OFF THE SE UNITED STATES EARLY SAT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
GALE- FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT. THOSE GALE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO PUSH EASTWARD WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
MAINLY NORTH OF 29N.
GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING: A FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OFF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING, AND THEN INTENSIFY THROUGH FRI. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG TO GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF TONIGHT THROUGH FRI, AND FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF FRI THROUGH SAT.
SEAS IN THESE AREAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH. IN
ADDITION, THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE
STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE NW TO N WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS OVER
THE WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN GULF THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT.
ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: LARGE LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL
WITH WAVE PERIODS OF 14 TO 16 SECONDS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC. NW SWELL SUPPORTS SEAS
OF 12 TO 17 FT N OF 26N BETWEEN 33W AND 65W. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS, THEN A NEW
SET OF NW SWELL WILL QUICKLY MOVE LATER TODAY, WITH SEAS OF 12 FT
OR GREATER NORTH OF 25N AND EAST OF 75W BY THIS EVENING, UP TO 21
FT NEAR 30.5N64W. BY FRI EVENING, SEAS OF 12 FT OR GREATER WILL
COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 32W AND
70W, WITH 20 TO 23 FT SEAS NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 45W AND 62W BY
THEN. SEAS OF 12 FT OR GREATER ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE SPREADING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT THE WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML, FOR MORE DETAILS ON
THE AREAS ABOVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N16W SOUTHWESTWARDS TO 06N20W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 02S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS DEPICTED FROM 00N TO 05N BETWEEN 34W AND 13W.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO DEPICTED FROM 00N TO
05N BETWEEN 13W AND THE COAST OF AFRICA.
..GULF OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
A GALE WARNING THAT IS IN PLACE FOR THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS.
A TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE WESTERN GULF REACHING FROM OFF
BROWNSVILLE, TEXAS TO NEAR COATZACOALCOS, MEXICO. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG E TO SE WINDS ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND 94W DUE TO
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER EASTERN GULF. SEAS WITH THESE
WINDS ARE 8 TO 9 FT. WEST OF THE TROUGH NW MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
ARE FOUND WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH N-NE WINDS ARE
PRESENT ACROSS THE REST OF THE GULF AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE GENERALLY 3 TO 6
FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS AND SEAS ARE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF THIS MORNING, EAST OF AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
GULF. LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THIS TROUGH OVER THE COAST OF
TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH FRI, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MOST OF THE GULF
THROUGH SAT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT, REACHING GALE FORCE OFF VERACRUZ, MEXICO FRI. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF SUN, AS HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF, WHILE THE FRONT STALLS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH- CENTRAL GULF. LOOKING AHEAD, A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF MON, FOLLOWED BY
STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL SUSTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. STRONG WINDS ARE
PULSING OFFSHORE NW COLOMBIA DUE TO LOCALLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT, WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADES ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN, ALONG WITH 3 TO 5 FT
SEAS. A SURFACE TO LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IS ANALYZED IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN FROM 17N66W TO 14N71W. NO CONVECTION IS DEPICTED AT THIS
TIME IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL SUSTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY
FRI. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, CAUSING THESE WINDS AND SEAS TO
ALSO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. IN ADDITION, WINDS
AT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN WILL PULSE TO STRONG AT NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERLY WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND ON AN
ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT IMPACTING A LARGE PORTION OF
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN WATERS.
THE COLD FRONT DISCUSSED ABOVE THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N42W TO
NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA, HAS FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ON EITHER SIDE,
MAINLY N OF 27N. SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER ARE NORTH OF 22N AND
EAST OF 75W, WITH 6 TO 8 FT SEAS SOUTH AND WEST OF THERE TO THE
COAST INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT, A RIDGE
DOMINATES THE OPEN WATERS STRETCHING FROM NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS
SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 18N51W. LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS
ARE FOUND RIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE, WITH MAINLY MODERATE NE-E WINDS
TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF IT. SEAS ARE MAINLY 4 TO 7 FT SOUTH OF
20N AND WEST OF 54W, AND 8 FT OR GREATER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE OPEN WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N42W
TO NORTHEAST HISPANIOLA WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH FRI, AHEAD OF A
REINFORCING FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. WINDS TO
GALE FORCE AND ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE DEVELOPING REINFORCING
FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND BERMUDA
TODAY, AND SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA TONIGHT AND FRI. THE FRONTS WILL
MERGE LATE FRI AND SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY SAT. FARTHER
WEST, EXPECT SW GALES AND ROUGH SEAS OFF NORTHWEST FLORIDA LATE
FRI NIGHT, AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
EARLY SAT. THIS FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO JUPITER INLET,
FLORIDA SAT NIGHT, AND WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH MON. AS
WITH THE EARLIER FRONT, GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
FOLLOW THIS FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
BERMUDA THROUGH SUN. LOOKING AHEAD, WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE BASIN SUN INTO MON.
KRV
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