528
AXNT20 KNHC 092325
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC FRI JAN 10 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2200 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC GALE WARNINGS: A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N64 TO JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS AT 28N78W. GALE-FORCE WINDS, UP TO 40 KT, ARE CURRENTLY
NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 68W AND 74W ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT,
WHILE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 25N
BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE SOUTH OF 25N AND
WEST OF 60W. ROUGH SEAS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS DESCRIBED IN
GREATER DETAIL BELOW. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY EXTEND FROM NEAR
31N45W TO NEAR THE ANEGADA PASSAGE BY FRI MORNING WITH GALE-FORCE
WINDS CONTINUING ON EITHER SIDE, REACHING FROM 31N41W TO THE NE
CARIBBEAN FRI EVENING, WITH THE FRONT AND ANY REMAINING ASSOCIATED
GALE-FORCE WINDS SHIFTING NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE AREA SAT
AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE SW N ATLANTIC WATERS,
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST FRI NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS OFFSHORE
NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL INCREASE TO GALE-FORCE LATE FRI NIGHT NORTH
OF 29N AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM
NEAR 31N70W TO NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS SAT EVENING WITH GALE-
FORCE WINDS EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 29N BY THEN. BY SUN
EVENING, THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N47W TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW GALE-FORCE. NEW AND
ASSOCIATED LARGE SWELLS WILL REINFORCE SWELLS GENERATED BY THE
FIRST FRONT.
GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING: AN 1012 MB FRONTAL LOW HAS MOVED
INTO THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS NEAR 27.5N97W. AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT IS SOUTH OF LOUISIANA NEAR 28.5N92W TO THE LOW, WITH A COLD
FRONT FROM THE LOW TO THE NE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 25N98.5W. GALE-
FORCE WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW IN THE SE QUADRANT THROUGH FRI.
SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. MEANWHILE, THE LOW
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF THROUGH SAT. FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, REACHING
GALE-FORCE OFF VERACRUZ, MEXICO FRI. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 14 FT
WITH THESE GALES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE OFF
VERACRUZ SAT.
ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: LARGE LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST
SWELL WITH WAVE PERIODS OF 14 TO 16 SECONDS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC. NW SWELL SUPPORTS SEAS
OF 12 TO 18 FT NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 30W AND 77W. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS, BEING
REINFORCED BY A SET OF NEW COLD FRONTS AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. BY FRI
EVENING, SEAS OF 12 FT OR GREATER WILL COVER THE WATERS NORTH OF
20N BETWEEN 31W AND 72W WITH PEAK SEAS OF 20 TO 24 FT NORTH OF 27N
BETWEEN 46W AND 63W THEN. SEAS OF 12 FT OR GREATER ARE FORECAST
TO CONTINUE SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT THE WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML, FOR MORE DETAILS ON
THE AREAS ABOVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 12N17W TO
05N22W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N22W TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 01S43.5W. EARLIER SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NEAR THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS.
..GULF OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
A GALE WARNING THAT IS IN PLACE FOR BOTH THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS, AND THE SW GULF OFFSHORE VERACRUZ, MEXICO.
OTHERWISE, A TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
FROM 25N96.5W TO 19N94.5W. LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS ARE WEST
OF THE TROUGH. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS ARE FOUND NORTH OF 22N,
EAST OF THE TROUGH AND ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT TO NEAR 92W. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF, EXCEPT E TO SE WEST OF 90W. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 6
TO 9 FT AND BUILDING WEST OF 93W, AND 3 TO 5 FT EAST OF 93W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE GALE-FORCE LOW PRESSURE DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MOST OF THE GULF THROUGH SAT. FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, REACHING
GALE-FORCE OFF VERACRUZ, MEXICO FRI. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
ACROSS THE GULF SUN, AS HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF, WHILE THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF. LOOKING AHEAD, A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE GULF MON, FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS OF PUERTO RICO NORTHEASTWARD IN THE ATLANTIC, WHILE A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS WEST OF THE FRONT TO ACROSS INTERIOR
HISPANIOLA TO SE CUBA. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED TO THE
SOUTH, FROM 17N66W TO 14N73W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FOUND WITHIN
60-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS TROUGH. MAINLY MODERATE NE WINDS ARE
FOUND ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF THE TROUGH, EXCEPT LOCALLY FRESH
TO STRONG OFFSHORE NICARAGUA AND NEAR THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA.
SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 16N AND WEST OF
76W, WITH 3 TO 5 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE WEST OF THE TROUGH. GENTLE TO
LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND EAST OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH
MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND STALL THROUGH SAT, THEN DISSIPATE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC INTO SAT. LARGE, LONG-PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, IMPACTING THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES INTO THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN SAT, THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OFF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS STARTING SAT NIGHT, AND THE WATERS EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS BY EARLY SUN BEFORE SUBSIDING INTO MON. THE PATTERN WILL
ALSO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH STRONGER WINDS PULSING OFF COLOMBIA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERLY WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND ON AN
ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT IMPACTING A LARGE PORTION OF
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN WATERS.
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING, GALE-FORCE COLD FRONT DISCUSSED ABOVE, A
STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS FROM 31N44W TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS OF PUERTO RICO. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 180 NM NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH 27N THERE. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF
22N WITHIN 240 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TO THE EAST OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT, 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA NEAR 24.5N11W THROUGH 27N35W TO THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND UNDER AND SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
THE RIDGE, ALONG WITH SEAS OF 7 TO 11 FT IN NW SWELL. SEAS ARE 4
TO 7 FT SOUTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 55W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH FRI, AHEAD OF THE REINFORCING, DEVELOPING COLD
FRONT. WINDS TO GALE-FORCE AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS FOLLOW
THE DEVELOPING REINFORCING FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND BERMUDA, AND THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA TONIGHT AND FRI. THE FRONTS WILL MERGE LATE
FRI AND SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY SAT. FARTHER WEST, EXPECT
SW GALES AND ROUGH SEAS OFF NORTHWEST FLORIDA LATE FRI NIGHT,
AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY SAT.
THIS FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO JUPITER INLET, FLORIDA SAT
NIGHT, AND WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH MON. AS WITH THE
EARLIER FRONT, GALE-FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THIS
FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND BERMUDA
THROUGH SUN. LOOKING AHEAD, WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE BASIN SUN INTO MON.
LEWITSKY
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