153
AXNT20 KNHC 100604
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC FRI JAN 10 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0550 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
..ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N61W, TO 27N70W, TO 26N60W AT THE
COAST OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ABOUT 180 NM TO THE SE AND
TO THE S OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS OR SO: GALE-FORCE W WINDS, AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS,
FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 53W AND 65W. STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE
W TO NW WINDS, AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS, ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 28N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 59W AND 69W. GALE-FORCE SW TO W WINDS, AND VERY
ROUGH SEAS, ARE FROM 23N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 37W AND 67W. STRONG TO
NEAR GALE-FORCE NW WINDS, AND VERY ROUGH SEAS, ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
26N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 77W. WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS, AND
ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL, ARE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THAT IS
FROM 07N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 35W AND 77W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL
TOTALS IN INCHES, FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 10/0000 UTC, ARE:
0.24 IN BERMUDA. THIS INFORMATION IS FROM THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES/MIATPTPAN.
..GULF OF MEXICO GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING
A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CLOSE TO 29N96W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER, TO 26N96W AND 24N98W IN
MEXICO. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
TO 28N90W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N96W 18N94W. PRECIPITATION:
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS, AND ISOLATED MODERATE, ARE
FROM 24N NORTHWARD. MODERATE SEAS ARE FROM 90W EASTWARD. EXPECT
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO: GALE-FORCE SE TO S WINDS, AND ROUGH
TO NEARLY VERY ROUGH SEAS, FROM 28N TO 29N BETWEEN 94W AND 95W.
STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS, AND ROUGH SEAS, WILL BE ELSEWHERE
FROM 22N TO 30N BETWEEN 90W AND 97W. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E
WINDS ARE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT TO
DEVELOP IN 24 HOURS OR SO: GALE-FORCE NW TO N WINDS, AND ROUGH
SEAS, FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 95W AND 97W, INCLUDING WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ IN MEXICO. STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NW
TO N WINDS, AND ROUGH TO NEAR VERY ROUGH SEAS, ARE FROM 19N TO 30N
BETWEEN 85W AND 98W. STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE S TO SW WINDS, AND
ROUGH SEAS, WILL BE FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 83W AND 87W.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT
LARGE LONG-PERIOD 14 SECONDS TO 16 SECONDS NORTHWEST SWELL
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN. NW SWELL HAS BEEN SUPPORTING SEA HEIGHTS THAT HAVE BEEN
RANGING FROM 12 FEET TO 18 FEET FROM 26N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 30W
AND 77W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS. NEW COLD FRONTS WILL REINFORCE THE
CONTINUING WAVE HEIGHT SITUATION. SEA HEIGHTS OF 12 FEET OR
HIGHER BY FRIDAY EVENING WILL COVER THE WATERS THAT ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 31W AND 72W. PEAK SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 20
FEET TO 24 FEET FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 46W AND 63W BY FRIDAY
EVENING. SEA HEIGHTS OF 12 FEET OR HIGHER ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
PLEASE, REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST, THAT IS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, AT THE WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML, FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT EACH SITUATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS OF NW
LIBERIA, TO 06N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N15W, TO 01N26W,
TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 33W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
PLEASE, REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION, FOR DETAILS ABOUT
A GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING THAT IS CLOSE TO THE 1009 MB 29N96W LOW
PRESSURE CENTER. EXPECT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT: GALE-FORCE NW TO N
WINDS, AND ROUGH SEAS, ARE FORECAST FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 95W
AND 97W, INCLUDING WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ IN
MEXICO.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NW GULF WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH FRI, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE MOST OF THE GULF THROUGH SAT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, REACHING GALE FORCE OFF VERACRUZ,
MEXICO FRI. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF SUN, AS
THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 17N/18N IN HISPANIOLA. REACHES THE
NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AT 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS,
AND MODERATE SEAS, ARE FROM 12N TO 16N FROM 80W WESTWARD.
MODERATE SEAS OF 6 FEET ARE FROM THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF HONDURAS
SOUTHWARD FROM 75W WESTWARD. SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE IN THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG NE WINDS ARE FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. STRONG NE WINDS ARE FROM 19N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN SE CUBA AND 81W. FRESH TO MODERATE NE WINDS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 70W WESTWARD. MODERATE OR SLOWER WINDS ARE FROM 70W
EASTWARD.
A SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 68W/69W, FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD. PRECIPITATION: BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS,
AND ISOLATED MODERATE, ARE BETWEEN 63W AND 73W.
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N74W IN COLOMBIA, THROUGH PARTS OF
NORTHERN PANAMA, AND BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA, INTO THE PACIFIC
OCEAN. PRECIPITATION: ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 14N SOUTHWARD FROM 77W WESTWARD.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND
STALL THROUGH SAT, THEN DISSIPATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO SAT. LARGE,
LONG-PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT,
IMPACTING THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN SAT,
THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OFF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS STARTING SAT
NIGHT, AND THE WATERS EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY EARLY SUN
BEFORE SUBSIDING INTO MON. THE PATTERN WILL ALSO SUPPORT MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTH- CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN, WITH STRONGER WINDS PULSING OFF COLOMBIA THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PLEASE, REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION, FOR DETAILS ABOUT
THE GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING, AND THE SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT.
STRONG AND FASTER NW TO W TO SW WINDS ARE FROM 31N76W 24N73W
21N55W 24N46W 31N35W NORTHWARD. FRESH NE WINDS ARE WITHIN 500 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N13W 23N18W 20N22W 14N31W 10N33W 06N41W
04N51W. FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 74W WESTWARD.
A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N42W, TO 27N50W 21N60W, TO
JUST TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO, TO HAITI. PRECIPITATION:
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 28N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 37W AND 47W.
A MOSTLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 25N55W TO NORTHEAST
HISPANIOLA WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH FRI, AHEAD OF A REINFORCING
FRONT EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE BOTH AHEAD AND
BEHIND THE REINFORCING FRONT N OF 28N, WITH ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
SEAS. THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA THROUGH
FRI. THE FRONTS WILL MERGE LATE FRI AND SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY
EARLY SAT. FARTHER WEST, EXPECT SW GALES AND ROUGH SEAS OFF
NORTHWEST FLORIDA LATE FRI NIGHT, AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY SAT. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS
THE FORECAST WATERS AND EXIT EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH MON. AS WITH
THE EARLIER FRONT, GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT THROUGH SUN.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
BASIN SUN INTO MON.
MT/AL
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