740
AXNT20 KNHC 101702
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC FRI JAN 10 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1702 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC GALE WARNINGS: A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
31N40W TO THE NE CARRIBBEAN. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM 31N48W TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS. GALE-FORCE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THESE FRONT ARE CURRENTLY NORTH OF 27.5N BETWEEN 38W AND 62W.
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS DESCRIBED IN
GREATER DETAIL BELOW. THE FRONTS WILL MERGE TODAY, AND QUICKLY
SHIFT EASTWARD, WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH SAT. THE
FRONT AND ANY REMAINING ASSOCIATED GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE AREA SAT AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE SW N ATLANTIC WATERS,
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS OFFSHORE
NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL INCREASE TO GALE-FORCE LATE TONIGHT NORTH
OF 30N AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH
FROM NEAR 31N70W TO NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS SAT EVENING WITH
GALE-FORCE WINDS MAINLY EAST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 29N. BY SUN
EVENING, THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N47W TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW GALE-FORCE. THIS SYSTEM WILL
GENERATE A NEW SET OF LARGE NW SWELL, WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE
SWELL GENERATED BY THE FIRST FRONT.
GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING: LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOUISIANA WILL
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY,
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MOST OF THE GULF THROUGH SAT.
STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS E OF THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT, REACHING GALE FORCE OFF MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT,
BETWEEN TAMPICO AND VERACRUZ. THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
THIS WEEKEND, AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE BY SAT.
ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: LARGE LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST
SWELL WITH WAVE PERIODS OF 12 TO 14 SECONDS CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS. SEAS GREATER
THAN 12 FT ASSOCIATED TO THIS SWELL COVER THE WATERS N OF 23N
BETWEEN 32W AND 74W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS, BEING REINFORCED BY A SET OF NEW NW
SWELL AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. SEAS WILL PEAK IN EXCESS OF 20 FT NORTH
OF 27N BETWEEN 47W AND 66W TONIGHT. SEAS OF 12 FT OR GREATER ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH AT LEAST THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT THE WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML, FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 07N12W TO
05N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N15W TO 00N43W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED FROM 04N TO 07N EAST OF 17W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED FROM 00N TO 03N BETWEEN
17.5W TO 26.5W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
A GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN GULF WATERS OFF TAMPICO, MEXICO;
AND THE SW GULF OFFSHORE VERACRUZ, MEXICO.
A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N91W, WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SW TO NEAR 20N96W. STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE SW WINDS ARE N OF 24N
AND EAST OF THE FRONT TO 87W. SEAS OF 13-15 FT ARE WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE LOW N OF 27N. ELSEWHERE E OF 87W, MODERATE TO FRESH SE
WINDS WITH SEAS IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ARE
WEST OF THE FRONT. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE IN THE 8-10 FT
RANGE. E OF 87W, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS, AND SEAS OF 4-7 FT,
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOUISIANA WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY, DRAGGING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MOST OF THE GULF THROUGH SAT. STRONG TO
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS E OF THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT, REACHING GALE FORCE OFF MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT, BETWEEN
TAMPICO AND VERACRUZ. THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THIS
WEEKEND, AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF. LOOKING
AHEAD, A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF EARLY NEXT
WEEK, FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS, POSSIBLY REACHING
GALE FORCE OFF VERACRUZ LATE MON.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC TO NORTH OF ST
KITTS & NEVIS TO NEAR 16N68W WHERE IT TRANSITION TO A TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS TO 15N71W. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER
THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE IN
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, 3-5 FT IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN, AND 2-3
FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
INTO SAT. LARGE, LONG-PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT, IMPACTING THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES INTO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN SAT, THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OFF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
STARTING SAT NIGHT, AND THE WATERS EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY
EARLY SUN BEFORE SUBSIDING INTO MON. THE PATTERN WILL ALSO
SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH STRONGER WINDS PULSING OFF COLOMBIA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON THE POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERLY
WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND ON AN ASSOCIATED
SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT IMPACTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN WATERS.
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N40W TO THE NE CARRIBBEAN
AND IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NORTH OF 27N
BETWEEN 35W AND 44W. A REINFORCING FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N48W TO
CENTRAL BAHAMAS. ASIDE FROM THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS, FRESH TO
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS N OF 22N BETWEEN
30W AND 72W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. ASIDE
FROM THE SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT, SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER COVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS. THE MAIN
EXCEPTION IS EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO 46W, WHERE SEAS OF
6-7 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE TODAY, AHEAD OF A REINFORCING FRONT FROM
31N48W TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS. WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE BOTH AHEAD AND
BEHIND THE REINFORCING FRONT NORTH OF 28N, WITH ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS. THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA
TODAY. THE FRONTS WILL MERGE LATE TODAY AND SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
BY EARLY SAT. FARTHER WEST, EXPECT SW GALES AND ROUGH SEAS OFF
NORTHWEST FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT, AHEAD OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SAT. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS AND EXIT EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH MON.
AS WITH THE EARLIER FRONT, GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT
THROUGH SUN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE BASIN SUN INTO MON.
KRV
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