018
AXNT20 KNHC 102336
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SAT JAN 11 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2235 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC GALE WARNINGS: A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N44W TO
EASTERN CUBA. GALE-FORCE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE FRONT
ARE CURRENTLY NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 36W AND 55W. ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS DESCRIBED IN GREATER DETAIL
BELOW. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD, WITH GALE-FORCE
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH SAT. THE FRONT AND ANY REMAINING ASSOCIATED
GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE AREA SAT
AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE SW N ATLANTIC WATERS,
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS OFFSHORE
NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL INCREASE TO GALE-FORCE LATE TONIGHT NORTH
OF 30N AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH
FROM NEAR 31N70W TO NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS SAT EVENING WITH
GALE-FORCE WINDS MAINLY EAST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 29N. BY SUN
EVENING, THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N47W TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW GALE-FORCE. THIS SYSTEM WILL
GENERATE A NEW SET OF LARGE NW SWELL, WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE
SWELL GENERATED BY THE FIRST FRONT.
GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING: LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TONIGHT, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MOST OF THE GULF
THROUGH SAT. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS E OF THE FRONT WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, REACHING GALE FORCE OFF MEXICO TONIGHT,
BETWEEN TAMPICO AND VERACRUZ. THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
THIS WEEKEND, AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE BY SAT.
ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: LARGE LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST
SWELL WITH WAVE PERIODS OF 12 TO 14 SECONDS CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS. SEAS GREATER
THAN 12 FT ASSOCIATED TO THIS SWELL COVER THE WATERS N OF 23N
BETWEEN 30W AND 70W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS, BEING REINFORCED BY A SET OF NEW NW
SWELL AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. SEAS WILL PEAK IN EXCESS OF 20 FT NORTH
OF 27N BETWEEN 47W AND 66W TONIGHT. SEAS OF 12 FT OR GREATER ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH AT LEAST THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT THE WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML, FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 06N18W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N18W TO
02N30W AND TO 00N43W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THESE
BOUNDARIES.
..GULF OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
A GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN GULF WATERS OFF TAMPICO, MEXICO;
AND THE SW GULF OFFSHORE VERACRUZ, MEXICO.
A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE IN THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO VERACRUZ. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
SEEN NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE COLD AND DRY CONTINENTAL
AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE WARM GULF OF MEXICO WATERS BEHIND THE
FRONT RESULT IN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERING MOST OF THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN GULF. A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
UNITED STATES IS FORCING STRONG TO GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG TO
NEAR GALE-FORCE SOUTHERLY AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF 26N. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE
OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON,
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MOST OF THE GULF THROUGH SAT.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS FOLLOW THE FRONT, REACHING
GALE FORCE OFF MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM
TAMPICO TO VERACRUZ. THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THIS SUN,
AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND DISSIPATES.
LOOKING AHEAD, A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS, POSSIBLY
REACHING GALE FORCE OFF VERACRUZ LATE MON.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE NE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD
TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE FOUND IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA, GULF OF VENEZUELA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA.
SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 4-6 FT. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT, THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE SAT
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO SAT. LARGE, LONG- PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL
WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, IMPACTING THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES
INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN SAT, THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OFF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS STARTING SAT NIGHT, AND THE WATERS EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS BY EARLY SUN BEFORE SUBSIDING INTO MON. THE
PATTERN WILL ALSO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN AND SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH STRONGER WINDS PULSING
OFF COLOMBIA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON THE POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERLY
WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND ON AN ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT
SWELL EVENT IMPACTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
WATERS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING IN THE WATERS OFF NE FLORIDA,
RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-6 FT. A
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF BAHAMAS MAINTAINS LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. FARTHER
EAST, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH- CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
31N44W TO 20N65W AND TO EASTERN CUBA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXTENDS FROM 30N42W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND NORTH OF 26N. ASIDE FROM THE AREA
OF GALE FORCE WINDS, FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS PREVAIL OVER
THE WATERS N OF 22N BETWEEN 30W AND 70W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. ASIDE FROM THE SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT, SEAS
8 FT OR GREATER COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
DISCUSSION WATERS. THE MAIN EXCEPTION IS EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS TO 46W, WHERE SEAS OF 6-7 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH OF 22N
WEST OF 55W THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG TO GALE FORCE ARE BOTH AHEAD
AND BEHIND THE FRONT NORTH OF 22N, BETWEEN 55W AND 70W, ALONG WITH
LARGE, LONG- PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT INTO SAT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND
WEAKENS. FARTHER WEST, EXPECT SW GALES AND ROUGH SEAS OFF
NORTHWEST FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT, AHEAD OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SAT. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS AND EXIT EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH MON.
AS WITH THE EARLIER FRONT, GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT
THROUGH SUN. THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE BASIN SUN INTO MON. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA TUE.
DELGADO
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