544
AXNT20 KNHC 110545
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SAT JAN 11 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
..ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING
A FIRST COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N42W, TO 24N50W 20N60W, TO
THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THAT IS CLOSE TO 70W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 90 NM TO 180 NM TO THE SSE OF THE FIRST
COLD FRONT. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS ABOUT 660 NM TO THE NNW OF THE
FIRST COLD FRONT. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS
OR SO: GALE-FORCE S TO SW WINDS, AND VERY ROUGH SEAS, FROM 26N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 35W AND 43W; STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE SW WINDS,
AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS, FROM 23N NORTHWARD ELSEWHERE BETWEEN
35W AND 49W; GALE-FORCE W WINDS, AND HIGH SEAS, FROM 28N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 46W AND 55W; STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE W TO NW WINDS, AND
VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS, ELSEWHERE FROM 23N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 43W
AND 66W; WIND SPEEDS ARE 20 KNOTS OR LESS, AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
SEAS IN NW SWELL, IN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THAT IS FROM 16N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 35W AND 75W. PRECIPITATION: SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 34W AND THE FIRST
COLD FRONT. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES, FOR THE PERIOD
THAT ENDED AT 1100 UTC, ARE: 0.12 IN BERMUDA. THIS INFORMATION IS
FROM THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES/MIATPTPAN.
A SECOND AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS IS IMMINENT, OFF THE COAST OF
FLORIDA. EXPECT SOON: GALE-FORCE SW WINDS, AND ROUGH SEAS, FROM
30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 78W AND 81W; STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE SW
WINDS, AND ROUGH SEAS, ELSEWHERE FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 76W
AND 81W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO LAST UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO BE GALE-FORCE, AND THE SEAS
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH, FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.
..GULF OF MEXICO GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING
A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN SW GEORGIA CLOSE TO
31N83.5W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER, TO
24N90W, AND TO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1008 MB
NORTHEASTWARD, INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN
160 NM TO THE SSE OF THE COLD FRONT. STRONG AND FASTER WINDS IN
GENERAL ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO: GALE-FORCE NW TO N WINDS,
AND ROUGH SEAS, FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 95W AND 97W, INCLUDING
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ IN MEXICO; STRONG TO NEAR
GALE-FORCE NW TO N WINDS, AND ROUGH SEAS, ELSEWHERE FROM 18N TO
30N BETWEEN 85W AND 97W; STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE SW TO W WINDS,
AND ROUGH SEAS, FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 83W AND 88W.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT
LARGE LONG-PERIOD 12 SECONDS TO 14 SECONDS NORTHWEST SWELL
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN GENERAL ARE FROM 20N NORTHWARD.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS. NEW COLD FRONTS WILL REINFORCE THE
CONTINUING WAVE HEIGHT SITUATION. SEA HEIGHTS OF 12 FEET OR HIGHER
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE PEAK SEA HEIGHTS WILL BE HIGHER THAN 20 FEET
TONIGHT, FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 47W AND 66W.
PLEASE, REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST, THAT IS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, AT THE WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML, FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT EACH SITUATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SOUTHERN
LIBERIA, TO 04N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N14W, TO 01N33W.
PRECIPITATION: WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG IS FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 07W AND 24W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
PLEASE, REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION, FOR DETAILS ABOUT
A GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING, AND THE OTHER WIND SPEEDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS, THAT ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CURRENT GULF OF MEXICO
COLD FRONT.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MOST OF THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH
SAT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS FOLLOW THE FRONT,
REACHING GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ, MEXICO. THESE WINDS
AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THIS SUN, AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST GULF AND DISSIPATES. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS, POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE OFF VERACRUZ LATE MON.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FIRST ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT, AND
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH, REACH THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE
COLD FRONT IS ALONG 19N/20N BETWEEN 60W AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS ABOUT 180 NM TO THE SSE OF THE
COLD FRONT.
MODERATE SEAS, AND FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS, ARE FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 80W. SLIGHT SEAS, AND
MODERATE OR SLOWER WINDS, ARE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 06N73W IN COLOMBIA, THROUGH THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PANAMA, AND BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA, INTO
THE PACIFIC OCEAN. PRECIPITATION: ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 13N SOUTHWARD FROM 79W WESTWARD.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
OVERNIGHT, THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC INTO SAT. LARGE, LONG-PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, IMPACTING THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES INTO THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN SAT, THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OFF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS STARTING SAT NIGHT, AND THE WATERS EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS BY EARLY SUN BEFORE SUBSIDING INTO MON. THE PATTERN WILL
ALSO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH STRONGER WINDS PULSING OFF COLOMBIA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PLEASE, REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION, FOR DETAILS ABOUT
THE GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING, AND THE SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT.
STRONG AND FASTER LARGE SCALE SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS FROM
31N67W 20N51W 20N42W 31N24W NORTHWARD. FRESH ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW IS FROM 13N NORTHWARD FROM 30W EASTWARD. FRESH NW WIND FLOW
IS ELSEWHERE FROM THE FIRST COLD FRONT NORTHWARD BETWEEN 58W AND
70W. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN GENERAL ARE FROM 20N NORTHWARD.
MODERATE SEAS ARE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH OF 21N WEST OF 55W. STRONG TO NEAR
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT NORTH OF 24N,
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W, ALONG WITH LARGE, LONG- PERIOD NORTHERLY
SWELL. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO SAT AS THE FRONT
MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND WEAKENS. FARTHER WEST, EXPECT SW
GALES AND ROUGH SEAS OFF NORTHWEST FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT, AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
SAT. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS AND EXIT
EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH MON. GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT
THROUGH SUN. THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE BASIN SUN INTO MON. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE WATERS OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA TUE.
MT/AL
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