856
AXNT20 KNHC 110854
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC SAT JAN 11 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC GALE WARNINGS: A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM FROM 31N39W TO
THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
NORTH OF 28N WITHIN 75 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, AS DESCRIBED IN GREATER DETAIL BELOW. THE
FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD, WITH WINDS OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS
DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE TODAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE SW N ATLANTIC WATERS THIS
WEEKEND. WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO GALE FORCE OVER THE WATERS EAST
OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY, AND RAPIDLY SHIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST
WATERS AND EXIT EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH MON. GALE FORCE WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN WATERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT THROUGH SUN. THE FRONT WILL GENERATE A REINFORCING SET OF
NW SWELL OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS, DISCUSSED BELOW.
GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM N
FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OFF THE COAST
OF VERACRUZ, MEXICO, WITH SEAS PEAKING NEAR 14 FT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE EARLY THIS MORNING.
ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: LARGE LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST
SWELL WITH WAVE PERIODS OF 13 TO 15 SECONDS ARE PROPAGATING
ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS. SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT
ASSOCIATED TO THIS SWELL COVER THE WATERS N OF 20N BETWEEN 31W
AND 68W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS, BEING REINFORCED BY A SET OF NEW NW SWELL AS
DISCUSSED ABOVE. SEAS ARE PEAKING IN EXCESS OF 20 FT NORTH OF 27N
BETWEEN 45W AND 59W. SEAS OF 12 FT OR GREATER ARE FORECAST TO
SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT THE WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML, FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 04N09W TO
04N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FOR 04N14W TO 02N33W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 00N TO 06N BETWEEN 10W AND 22W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
A GALE WARNING FOR THE SW GULF OFFSHORE VERACRUZ, MEXICO.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ASIDE
FROM THE GALE FORCE WINDS, STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW GULF, WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT. E OF THE FRONT, MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS ARE IN THE 11-14 FT RANGE OVER THE SW
GULF, AND 8-11 FT ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT. E OF THE FRONT, SEAS
OF 3-6 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF TODAY. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS FOLLOW THE FRONT,
WITH GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ, MEXICO DIMINISHING
EARLY TODAY. THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SUN, AS THE FRONT
STALLS OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND DISSIPATES. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY STRONG
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS, AND SEAS OF 4-7 FT, PREVAIL OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS, AND SEAS OF 2-4 FT,
ARE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS
OF 2-3 FT, ARE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN TODAY, THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY. LARGE, LONG- PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL WILL
ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, IMPACTING THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES INTO THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TODAY, THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OFF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS STARTING TONIGHT, AND THE WATERS EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS BY EARLY SUN BEFORE SUBSIDING INTO MON. THE
PATTERN WILL ALSO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN AND SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH STRONG WINDS PULSING
OFF COLOMBIA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH SUN, AND ON
AN ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT IMPACTING A LARGE PORTION OF
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN WATERS.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N39W TO THE NORTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS. ASIDE FROM THE GALE FORCE WINDS, FRESH TO NEAR GALE WINDS
ARE NOTED N OF 23N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. ASIDE FROM THE GALE FORCE
WINDS OFF NORTHERN FLORIDA, FRESH TO NEAR GALE WINDS ARE N OF THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS, AND W OF 75W. A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
25N69W, WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGH
CENTER. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER
THE DISCUSSION WATERS. ASIDE FROM THE SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT,
SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER COVER THE WATERS N OF 18N AND E OF 74W.
ELSEWHERE, SEAS OF 6-7 FT ARE NOTED.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
THE WATERS N OF 27N AND E OF 61W WILL DIMINISH TODAY. FARTHER
WEST, SW GALES AND ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL OFF NORTHWEST FLORIDA AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TODAY. THIS FRONT
WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS AND EXIT EAST OF THE AREA
THROUGH MON. GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL IMPACT THE
NORTHERN WATERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT THROUGH SUN. THESE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
BASIN SUN INTO MON. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS OFF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA TUE.
AL
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