128
AXNT20 KNHC 111635
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC SAT JAN 11 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1615 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRESSURE
OFF CAPE HATTERAS TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. GALE-FORCE SW-W WINDS ARE
OCCURRING NORTH OF 29N AND BETWEEN 68W AND 77W. SEAS IN THESE
WATERS ARE 12-17 FT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
FORECAST WATERS AND EXIT EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH MON. GALE FORCE
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN WATERS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT THROUGH SUN. THE FRONT WILL GENERATE A
REINFORCING SET OF NW SWELL OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS, DISCUSSED
BELOW.
ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: LARGE LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST
SWELL WITH WAVE PERIODS OF 13 TO 15 SECONDS ARE PROPAGATING
ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS. SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT
ASSOCIATED TO THIS SWELL COVER THE WATERS N OF 18N BETWEEN 30W
AND 65W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS, BEING REINFORCED BY A SET OF NEW NW SWELL AS
DISCUSSED ABOVE. SEAS ARE PEAKING IN EXCESS OF 19 FT NORTH OF 30N
BETWEEN 44W AND 55W. SEAS OF 12 FT OR GREATER ARE FORECAST TO
SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT THE WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML, FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS CONFINED TO THE AFRICAN CONTINENT. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 05N08W TO 02N30W
AND TO 00N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT SOUTH OF
07N AND EAST OF 25W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SWIFTLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO, EXTENDING FROM SW FLORIDA TO NE YUCATAN. THE REST
OF THE GULF IS UNDER AN EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITION OVER
THE SOUTHERN US AND NORTHERN MEXICO. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER
MOST OF THE BASIN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO 12 FT ARE FOUND IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
OCCURRING IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF WATERS. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM PORT CHARLOTTE,
FLORIDA TO MERIDA, MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
TODAY. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS FOLLOWING
THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SUN, AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND DISSIPATES. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS, POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR-GALE OFF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ,
MEXICO MON NIGHT.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM DOMINICA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE PRESENT NEAR
THIS BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER A WEAK
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITION NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURES IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND MODERATE
TO FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEAS IN
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE 4-7 FT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, LARGE, LONG- PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL WILL MOVE
INTO THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TODAY, THE
ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OFF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS STARTING TONIGHT,
AND THE WATERS EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY EARLY SUN BEFORE
SUBSIDING INTO MON. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH STRONG WINDS
PULSING OFF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH SUN, AND ON
AN ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT IMPACTING A LARGE PORTION OF
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN WATERS.
OUTSIDE FROM THE FEATURES DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N37W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 16N61W. FRESH TO NEAR GALE WINDS ARE NOTED N OF 23N AND BETWEEN
25W AND 60W. ASIDE FROM THE GALE FORCE WINDS OFF NORTHERN
FLORIDA, FRESH TO NEAR GALE WINDS ARE N OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS,
AND W OF 60W. A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 24N67W, WITH LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGH CENTER. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE DISCUSSION
WATERS. ASIDE FROM THE SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT, SEAS OF 8 FT OR
GREATER COVER THE WATERS N OF 15N AND E OF 74W. ELSEWHERE, SEAS OF
6-7 FT ARE NOTED.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, SW GALES AND ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL OFF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY REACHING
FROM 31N77W TO NEAR FORT PIERCE, FLORIDA. THE FRONT WILL REACH
FROM BERMUDA TO FORT LAUDERDALE, FLORIDA BY THIS EVENING, FROM
31N55W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA EARLY SAT, BEFORE STALLING ALONG
ROUGHLY 21N LATE SUN INTO MON. THE GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL IMPACT THE WATERS NORTH OF 28N IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT
THROUGH SUN. THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE BASIN SUN INTO MON. LOOKING AHEAD, A REINFORCING
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA TUE, AND
REACH FROM BERMUDA TO SOUTH FLORIDA WED.
DELGADO
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