697
AXNT20 KNHC 112325
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SAT JAN 11 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: WINDS TO GALE FORCE AND ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL BETWEEN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND BERMUDA
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM 31N72W TO
THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N55W TO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA EARLY SUN, BEFORE STALLING THEN DISSIPATING
ALONG ROUGHLY 21N LATE SUN INTO MON. THE GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30
TO 40 KT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 12 TO 20 FT WILL IMPACT THE
WATERS NORTH OF 28N IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT THROUGH SUN.
THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE BASIN SUN INTO MON.
ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: LARGE LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST
SWELL, WITH WAVE PERIOD OF 13 TO 15 SECONDS, IS PROPAGATING
ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS. SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT
ASSOCIATED TO THIS SWELL EVENT COVERS THE WATERS E OF 60W AND N
OF A LINE FROM 27N35W TO 21N45W TO 17N60W. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS, AND BE REINFORCED
BY A NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE. SEAS ARE NOW PEAKING 19 FT NORTH OF 28N
BETWEEN 43W AND 53W, AND THIS SWELL EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. HOWEVER,
ON SUN, SEAS OF 12 TO 20 FT RELATED TO THE NEW SWELL EVENT WILL
COVER THE WATERS N OF 27N AND E OF 70W.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT THE WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML, FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH THE COAST OF
LIBERIA AND EXTENDS WESTWARD TO NEAR 04N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 04N15W TO THE EQUATOR AT 32W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS PRESENT FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 13W AND 18W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE FAR SE GULF OF MEXICO, AND EXTENDS FROM
THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
THE FRONT, AND DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE SEEN PER SCATTEROMETER DATA
BEHIND THE FRONT TO ABOUT 25N, AND ALSO IN THE NE GULF. SEAS OF 9
TO 11 FT ARE NOTED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE OCCURRING ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE GULF REGION EXCEPT IN THE NW PART WHERE MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT. COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE BASIN BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS AND SEAS BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
STALLS THEN DISSIPATES. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS, POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR GALE-FORCE OFF THE COAST OF
VERACRUZ, MEXICO MON NIGHT.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM DOMINICA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS ROUGHLY ALONG 15N AND A FEW SHOWERS
ARE PRESENT NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. HIGH PRESSURE OF 1016 MB LOCATED NE OF PUERTO
RICO NEAR 23N60W DOMINATES THE NE CARIBBEAN. UNDER THIS WEATHER
PATTERN, FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE
OCCURRING IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT ARE NOTED IN THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, LARGE, LONG- PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL IS MOVING
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND
THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OFF THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS.
THIS SWELL EVENT WILL SUBSIDE FROM LATE SUN THROUGH EARLY MON.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH STRONG WINDS PULSING OFF COLOMBIA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N72W TO THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS
IS PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS. SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT
AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM 31N34W TO 20N47W ARE GOING
TO IMPACT A LARGE PORTION OF THE ATLANTIC FORECAST WATERS.
PLEASE, REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS.
OUTSIDE FROM THE FEATURES DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION, A RIDGE DOMINATES THE EASTERN ATLANTIC, INCLUDING THE
MADEIRA, CANARY AND CABO VERDE ISLANDS. BASED ON SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS DATA, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE AFFECTING MOST OF
WATERS N OF 25N AND W OF 30W DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE ABOVE
MENTIONED COLD FRONTS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE IN THE VICINITY
OF A HIGH PRESSURE OF 1016 MB LOCATED NE OF PUERTO RICO. GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE DISCUSSION
WATERS. ASIDE FROM THE SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED,
SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT COVER MOST OF THE WATERS N OF 15N AND E OF
THE BAHAMAS. ELSEWHERE, SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FT ARE NOTED.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, LOOKING AHEAD, A REINFORCING FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA TUE, AND REACH
FROM BERMUDA TO SOUTH FLORIDA WED.
GR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page