138
AXNT20 KNHC 120530
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SUN JAN 12 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0510 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
..ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING
A FIRST COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N68W, TO 30N70W, TO THE ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE NW BAHAMAS. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY, AND IT
CONTINUES THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO: GALE-FORCE SW TO W WINDS, AND VERY
ROUGH SEAS, FROM 29N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 61W AND 69W; STRONG TO
NEAR GALE-FORCE SW TO W WINDS, AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS,
ELSEWHERE FROM 26N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 56W AND 73W; GALE-FORCE W TO
NW WINDS, AND VERY ROUGH SEAS, FROM 30.5N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 69W
AND 72.5W; STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE W TO NW WINDS, AND ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH SEAS, ELSEWHERE FROM 28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 69W AND
77W; WIND SPEEDS ARE 20 KNOTS OR LESS, AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
SEAS IN NW SWELL, IN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THAT IS FROM 12N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 35W AND 79W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN
INCHES, FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 12/0000 UTC, ARE: 0.30 IN
BERMUDA. THIS INFORMATION IS FROM THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES/MIATPTPAN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT
LARGE LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL, WHOSE WAVE PERIODS ARE RANGING
FROM 13 SECONDS TO 15 SECONDS, CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN GENERAL
ARE FROM 12N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 35W AND 79W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS. NEW
COLD FRONTS WILL REINFORCE THE CONTINUING WAVE HEIGHT SITUATION.
SEA HEIGHTS THAT RANGE FROM 12 FEET TO 20 FEET, THAT WILL BE
RELATED TO THE NEW SWELL EVENT, WILL COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 27N NORTHWARD FROM 70W EASTWARD. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE SUBSIDING
GRADUALLY.
PLEASE, REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST, THAT IS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, AT THE WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML, FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT EACH SITUATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS OF LIBERIA
CLOSE TO 06N10W, TO 05N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N14W, TO
04N20W, 02N25W 02N27W 01N32W. PRECIPITATION: WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN 135 NM TO THE
NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/THE ITCZ BETWEEN 13W AND 19W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS,
INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA, TO THE NE CORNER OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA, TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE MODERATE TO NEAR ROUGH,
RANGING FROM 6 FEET TO 8 FEET, FROM THE EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
THE GULF, TO PARTS OF THE SE GULF, INTO THE SW CORNER OF THE AREA.
MOSTLY MODERATE SEAS ARE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
AN EXCEPTION IS FOR SLIGHT SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM
LOUISIANA TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. FRESH TO STRONG NE
WINDS ARE WITHIN 45 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT
BETWEEN 84W AND 86W. FRESH NE WINDS ARE WITHIN 160 NM OF THE NW
CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. FRESH SE WINDS ARE WITHIN 100 NM
OF THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM 95W WESTWARD.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SE LOUISIANA TOWARD 20N AND THE
COAST OF MEXICO.
SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS, POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR-GALE OFF THE COAST OF
VERACRUZ, MEXICO MON NIGHT.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 15N, FROM
60W TO 70W, TO 80W, AND TO 13N83W CLOSE TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA.
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 78W WESTWARD. FRESH NE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE
FROM 17N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 66W AND 80W. MODERATE OR SLOWER WINDS
ARE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
MODERATE SEAS THAT RANGE FROM 5 FEET TO 6 FEET ARE FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. MODERATE SEAS THAT RANGE FROM 4
FEET TO 5 FEET ARE FROM 70W EASTWARD. SLIGHT SEAS ARE IN THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N74W IN COLOMBIA, THROUGH PANAMA
ALONG 80W, AND BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA, INTO THE PACIFIC
OCEAN.
LARGE, LONG-PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
PASSAGES INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST
OFF THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL SUBSIDE FROM LATE SUN
THROUGH EARLY MON. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER
THE EASTERN AND SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH STRONG WINDS
PULSING OFF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PLEASE, REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION, FOR DETAILS ABOUT
THE GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING, AND THE SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT.
STRONG AND FASTER LARGE SCALE SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS FROM
25N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 53W AND 78W, IN GENERAL. VERY ROUGH SEAS IN
GENERAL ARE FROM 24N50W 24N60W 31N76W NORTHWARD. MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS ARE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
THE SECOND COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N32W, TO 24N40W 20N48W
16N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 16N58W, INTO THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG S WINDS ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 28W AND THE SECOND COLD FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS FROM 22N NORTHWARD FROM 27W
EASTWARD. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE FROM 11N TO 22N FROM 24W
EASTWARD. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE FROM 02N TO 16N BETWEEN 33W
AND 46W. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS FROM 22N26W 16N41W 14N60W SOUTHWARD.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N69W TO 24N80W, WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND N OF 29N. THE FRONT WILL REACH
FROM 31N55W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA EARLY SUN, BEFORE STALLING
THEN DISSIPATING ALONG ROUGHLY 21N LATE SUN INTO MON. THE GALE
FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL IMPACT THE WATERS NORTH OF 28N IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT THROUGH SUN. THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE BASIN SUN INTO MON. A
REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA
TUE, AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO SOUTH FLORIDA WED.
MT/AL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page