038  
AXNT20 KNHC 120823  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1215 UTC SUN JAN 12 2025  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
0820 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES
 
 
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N62W TO  
23N80W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED N OF 29N AND EAST OF THE FRONT  
TO 54W, WHERE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL. THE FRONT WILL  
SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY, WITH GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM EAST OF  
THE FRONT AND N OF 28N. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE  
TONIGHT.  
 
ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: TWO SETS OF LARGE LONG-PERIOD  
NORTHWEST SWELL ARE IMPACTING THE DISCUSSION WATERS, PRODUCING  
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ASSOCIATED TO THE  
FIRST SWELL COVER THE WATERS N OF A LINE FROM 17N52W TO 30N30W,  
WHILE SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ASSOCIATED TO THE OTHER SWELL COVER  
THE WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 52W AND 73W. SEAS ARE NOW PEAKING  
NEAR 18 FT NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W. SEAS ASSOCIATED TO  
THE FIRST SWELL WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 12 FT TODAY, WHILE THE SECOND  
SWELL SPREADS SE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE SUBSIDING.  
 
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE  
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT THE WEBSITE:  
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML, FOR MORE DETAILS.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
 
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 05N10W TO  
04N13W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N13W TO 01N32W. SCATTERED  
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 12W AND  
19W.  
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODERATE TO FRESH  
WINDS ARE OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF, WITH MODERATE WINDS N AND W  
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW  
PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-7 FT  
RANGE OVER THE WATERS SE OF A LINE FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO  
TAMPICO, MEXICO, AND 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF EARLY THIS  
WEEK FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS, POSSIBLY REACHING  
NEAR- GALE OFF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ, MEXICO MON NIGHT.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
 
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN,  
WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND  
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE IN THE 4-7 FT  
RANGE. GENTLE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 2-4 FT, PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN  
CARIBBEAN.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, LARGE LONG- PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL MOVING  
THROUGH THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND THE  
ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL  
SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO  
FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN,  
WITH STRONG WINDS PULSING OFF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT  
WEEK.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
 
PLEASE REFER TO SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE ON A GALE AND A  
SIGNIFICANT SWELL IN THE ATLC WATERS.  
 
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N62W TO 23N80W. ASIDE FROM THE AREA OF  
GALE FORCE WINDS, FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE  
WATERS N OF A LINE FROM 30N72W TO 25N63W TO 30N48W. FARTHER EAST,  
ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N31W TO 16N58W, WITH LITTLE  
IMPACT ON WINDS. ASIDE FROM THE WINDS DESCRIBED ABOVE, MAINLY  
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE WEST OF THE FRONT; WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE  
WINDS WITHIN 60 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE  
NOTED ELSEWHERE. ASIDE FROM THE AREA OF 12 FT SEAS DISCUSSED IN  
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION, SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER ARE OVER THE  
WATERS W OF A LINE FROM 31N24W TO 10N56W. THE EXCEPTION IS WITHIN  
120 NM NE OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WHERE SEAS OF 5-7 FT  
PREVAIL. OTHERWISE, SEAS ARE IN THE 6-7 FT RANGE.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N55W TO  
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TODAY, BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING  
ALONG ROUGHLY 21N LATE TONIGHT INTO MON. THE GALE FORCE WINDS AND  
ROUGH SEAS WILL IMPACT THE WATERS NORTH OF 28N IN THE VICINITY OF  
THE FRONT TODAY. THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE AS HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE BASIN INTO MON. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL  
MOVE INTO THE WATERS OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA TUE, AND REACH FROM  
BERMUDA TO SOUTH FLORIDA WED.  
 

 
AL  
 
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