948
AXNT20 KNHC 121828
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC SUN JAN 12 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1600 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC ACROSS 31N56W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
NEAR-GALE TO GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED NEAR THIS FRONT NORTH OF
29N BETWEEN 49W AND 53W. SEAS IN THIS AREA ARE PEAKING AT 15 TO
18 FT. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS THIS
EVENING, IT SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO SUBSIDE BELOW GALE-FORCE LATE
TONIGHT.
ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: IN ADDITION TO THE GALE WINDS
MENTIONED EARLIER, LARGE LONG-PERIOD W TO NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SEAS OF 12 TO 15 FT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 35W AND 66W. THE LEADING EDGE OF
12-FT SEAS IS GOING TO MOVE FARTHER SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 21N
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERWARD, SEAS WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT
NORTHWARD AND DECAY, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THEM TO DROP BELOW 12 FT
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORES WATERS
FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT THE WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NCH.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH REACHES WESTWARD OFF CENTRAL LIBERIA TO 06N14W.
AN ITCZ CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 06N14W THROUGH 06N22W TO
01N40W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED NEAR BOTH FEATURES
AND SOUTHWARD TO THE EQUATOR.
..GULF OF MEXICO
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TO 25N88W, THEN CONTINUES AS A WARM FRONT TO A 1011 MB LOW
JUST OFF CORPUS CHRISTI. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NEAR AND
UP TO 150 NM NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS ARE SEEN AT THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.
GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT PREVAIL FOR
THE REST OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER THE COAST OF TEXAS
NEAR BAFFIN BAY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN GULF THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
FRESH TO STRONG WIND AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT, POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR-GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ
MON NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF THROUGH MID-WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DIMINISH THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
CONVERGENT TRADE WINDS ARE CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE GULF
OF HONDURAS TO NEAR JAMAICA. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND SEAS AT
6 TO 9 FT ARE PRESENT AT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN. MODERATE TO
FRESH E WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS IN LARGE N SWELL ARE NOTED AT THE
NORTH-CENTRAL BASIN, INCLUDING THE MONA PASSAGE. GENTLE TO
MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, LARGE, LONG- PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL MOVING
THROUGH THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND THE
ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL
SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN,
WITH STRONG WINDS PULSING OFF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR GALE WINDS AND A
SIGNIFICANT SWELL IN THE ATLC WATERS.
A COLD FRONT CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ACROSS 31N56W TO NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
SEEN NEAR AND UP TO 100 NM SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE. CONVERGENT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PRODUCING SIMILAR CONDITIONS FARTHER EAST,
NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 35W AND 53W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS 31N30W TO NEAR
THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. PATCHY SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING UP TO
50 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONT.
OUTSIDE THE GALE WARNING AREA, FRESH TO STRONG SW TO NW WINDS AND
SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FT ARE EVIDENT NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 40W AND 65W.
TO THE WEST, GENTLE TO MODERATE W TO NW WINDS AND 5 TO 9 FT SEAS
DOMINATE NORTH OF 22N AND WEST OF 65W. FARTHER EAST, GENTLE TO
MODERATE SE TO SW WINDS AND SEAS AT 10 TO 12 FT ARE PRESENT NORTH
OF 20N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W. GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT IN
MODERATE N SWELL ARE SEEN FROM 17N TO 22N AND WEST OF 35W. FOR
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 00N TO 17N BETWEEN 35W AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES, GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO ENE WINDS AND 7 TO 9 FT SEAS
IN MIXED MODERATE SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST TODAY, BEFORE STALLING ALONG ROUGHLY 21N LATE TONIGHT
INTO MON AND DISSIPATING TUE. WINDS WILL DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE BASIN INTO MON. LARGE SWELL MAINLY EAST OF 75W
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEST OF 60W THROUGH LATE TUE. A REINFORCING
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA TUE, AND
REACH FROM BERMUDA TO SOUTH FLORIDA WED, BEFORE STALLING ALONG 22N
THROUGH THU. ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE, LONG-PERIOD NW TO N SWELL
WILL FOLLOW THE REINFORCING FRONT OVER THE WATERS EAST OF 75W.
CHAN
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