209  
AXNT20 KNHC 130614  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
0615 UTC MON JAN 13 2025  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
0550 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES  
 
   
..ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING  
 
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N47W, TO 29N50W 26N60W 24N70W  
24N73W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY, AND IT CONTINUES FROM  
24N73W, THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 25N84W. THE FRONT IS A  
WARM FRONT, FROM 24N83W, TO A GULF OF MEXICO 28N94W 1011 MB LOW  
PRESSURE CENTER. THE EARLIER GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS WILL BE  
ENDING SOON. EXPECT FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO: STRONG TO NEAR  
GALE-FORCE SW TO W WINDS, AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS, FROM 27N  
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 39W AND 51W; STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE W TO NW  
WINDS, AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS, FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 48W  
AND 58W; WINDS 20 KNOTS, AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN NW  
SWELL, FROM 07N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 35W AND 58W. THE 24-HOUR  
RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES, FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 13/0000  
UTC, ARE:  
0.18 IN BERMUDA. THIS INFORMATION IS FROM THE PAN AMERICAN  
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES/MIATPTPAN.  
   
..ATLANTIC OCEAN SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT  
 
LARGE LONG-PERIOD W TO NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ROUGH TO  
VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS AND IN THE CENTRAL  
SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 26N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 35W AND  
66W. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WILL BE  
APPROACHING 20N/21N THIS EVENING. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL MOVE  
NORTHWARD, AND THEN THEY WILL BEGIN TO DECAY, WITH TIME, DURING  
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  
 
PLEASE, REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST, THAT IS  
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, AT THE WEBSITE:  
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML, FOR MORE DETAILS  
ABOUT EACH SITUATION.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ  
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS OF LIBERIA  
CLOSE TO 05N09W, TO 05N12W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N12W, TO  
02N23W 02N31W. PRECIPITATION: WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED  
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 07N SOUTHWARD FROM 26W  
EASTWARD. SIMILAR PRECIPITATION IS FROM 04N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 35W  
AND SOUTH AMERICA.  
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
 
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CLOSE TO 28N94W. A WARM FRONT  
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER, TO 25N84W. A STATIONARY  
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 25N84W, THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA, TO  
24N73W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE  
CENTER TO 21N97W.  
 
EXPECT STRONG E TO SE WINDS FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W.  
SLIGHT SEAS COVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  
 
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NW GULF WILL LIFT NORTHEAST  
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO  
SOUTHERN GULF THROUGH TUE NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND  
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, POSSIBLY REACHING  
NEAR-GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ MON NIGHT. THE FRONT  
WILL STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF THROUGH MID-  
WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS  
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
 
AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 15N, FROM  
60W TO 70W, TO 80W, AND TO 13N83W CLOSE TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA.  
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE  
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 78W WESTWARD. FRESH NE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE  
FROM 17N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 66W AND 80W. MODERATE OR SLOWER WINDS  
ARE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  
 
MODERATE SEAS THAT RANGE FROM 5 FEET TO 6 FEET ARE FROM 16N  
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. MODERATE SEAS THAT RANGE FROM 4  
FEET TO 5 FEET ARE FROM 70W EASTWARD. SLIGHT SEAS ARE IN THE  
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N74W IN COLOMBIA, THROUGH PANAMA  
ALONG 80W, AND BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA, INTO THE PACIFIC  
OCEAN.  
 
LARGE, LONG-PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE ATLANTIC  
PASSAGES INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST  
OF THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT  
THROUGH EARLY MON. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE  
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER  
THE EASTERN AND SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH STRONG WINDS  
PULSING OFF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
 
PLEASE, REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION, FOR DETAILS ABOUT  
THE GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING, AND THE SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT.  
 
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N34W 26N40W 20N51W, TO THE ISLANDS OF  
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN DOMINICA AND MARTINIQUE, TO  
15N62W. PRECIPITATION: ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IS  
WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 23N TO  
30N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG IS WITHIN 30 NM  
TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM 30N TO 31N.  
 
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 28N55W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WILL  
STALL ALONG ROUGHLY 21N LATE TONIGHT INTO MON WHERE IT WILL  
DISSIPATE TUE. WINDS WILL DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER  
THE BASIN INTO MON. LARGE SWELL EAST OF 72W WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE  
WEST OF 60W THROUGH LATE TUE. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE INTO  
THE WATERS OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA TUE, AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO  
SOUTH FLORIDA WED, BEFORE STALLING ALONG 22N THROUGH THU. ANOTHER  
ROUND OF LARGE, LONG-PERIOD NW TO N SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE  
REINFORCING FRONT OVER THE WATERS EAST OF 75W THU, AND SHIFT TO  
EAST OF 55W BY LATE FRI.  
 
 
MT/AL  
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