898
AXNT20 KNHC 131817
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC MON JAN 13 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1600 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT:
LARGE, LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL IS IMPACTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC,
PRODUCING 12 TO 23 FT SEAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM 32N63W TO 24N60W
TO 27N48W TO 31N38W. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS SWELL WILL DIG
FARTHER SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 21N TONIGHT, WHILE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO
BETWEEN 12 AND 17 FT. AS THE NW SWELL CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE, SEAS
GREATER THAN 12 FT SHOULD RETREAT NORTHWARD TO NORTH OF 31N BY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT THE WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE
DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH STAYS MOSTLY OVER THE AFRICA CONTINENT. AN ITCZ
EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN LIBERIA AT
05N11W ACROSS 02N25W TO 01N37W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED NEAR THE ITCZ FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 12W AND 27W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE
JUST SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA TO NEAR TAMPICO, MEXICO.
A WARM FRONT REACHES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THIS SAME LOW TO NEAR
TAMPA, FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING UP TO 50 NM SOUTHEAST, AND 150 NM NORTHWEST OF THIS
BOUNDARY. MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT
ARE EVIDENT AT THE NE GULF. MAINLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT ARE NOTED AT THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. LIGH TO
GENTLE WINDS AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND INLAND
TODAY, WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN GULF THROUGH TUE. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT, REACHING NEAR-GALE FORCE
OFFSHORE VERACRUZ, MEXICO, TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WED, WITH WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE BASIN THEREAFTER.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
CONVERGENT TRADE WINDS ARE TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN BASIN NEAR THE ABC ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
CAUSING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THE GULF OF HONDURAS. FRESH TO
STRONG ENE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT ARE PRESENT AT THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH ENE TO E WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS
DOMINATE THE NORTH-CENTRAL BASIN. GENTLE TO MODERATE ENE TO SE
WINDS AND SEAS AT 3 TO 5 FT PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, LARGE, LONG-PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL MOVING
THROUGH THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND THE
ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL
SUBSIDE TODAY, BUT BE REPLACED BY REINFORCING SWELL TONIGHT INTO
WED. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN, WITH STRONG WINDS PULSING OFF COLOMBIA INTO
LATE WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AT THE BEGINNING ON
SIGNIFICANT SWELL IN THE ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC
ACROSS 31N42W TO NORTHEAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AT
22N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING
UP TO 50 NM NORTH, AND 80 NM SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. TWO SURFACE
TROUGHS ARE PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 13N TO 24N
BETWEEN 37W AND 54W.
OUTSIDE THE SIGNIFICANT SWELL AREA, GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS
AND 6 TO 12 FT SEAS IN MODERATE NW SWELL ARE PRESENT NORTH OF THE
COLD FRONT, WEST OF 55W. EAST OF THE FRONT TO 35W, MODERATE TO
FRESH SE WINDS AND SEAS AT 10 TO 11 FT ARE EVIDENT. FROM 17N TO
23N BETWEEN 42W AND HISPANIOLA, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND 6 TO 8
FT SEAS ARE NOTED. FOR THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC, GENTLE TO MODERATE
ENE TO E WINDS ALONG WITH 8 TO 11 FT SEAS ARE EVIDENT FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 17N BETWEEN 35W AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, COLD FRONT WILL STALL TODAY AND
DISSIPATE TONIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. LARGE
SWELL EAST OF 70W WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEST OF 60W THROUGH LATE
TUE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS OFF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA TONIGHT, REACH FROM BERMUDA TO SOUTH FLORIDA TUE NIGHT,
THEN STALL OVER THE SE WATERS THROUGH THU. ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE,
LONG- PERIOD NW TO N SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OVER THE WATERS
EAST OF 75W WED NIGHT AND SHIFT TO EAST OF 55W BY FRI NIGHT. IDA
WED, BEFORE STALLING ALONG 22N THROUGH THU. ANOTHER ROUND OF
LARGE, LONG- PERIOD NW TO N SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE REINFORCING
FRONT OVER THE WATERS EAST OF 75W THU, AND SHIFT TO EAST OF 55W BY
LATE FRI.
CHAN
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