373
AXNT20 KNHC 132317
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC TUE JAN 14 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT:
LARGE, LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL IS IMPACTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC,
PRODUCING 12 TO 23 FT SEAS NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 39W AND 63W. THIS
IS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N41W TO 21N69W.
THIS SWELL WILL DIG FARTHER SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 21N TONIGHT, WHILE
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BETWEEN 12 AND 17 FT. AS THE NW SWELL
CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE, SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT SHOULD RETREAT
NORTHWARD TO NORTH OF 31N BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT THE WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE
DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH STAYS OVER THE AFRICA CONTINENT. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 06N11W TO 00N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED NEAR THE ITCZ FROM 00N TO 09N BETWEEN 10W AND 33W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM
A 1013 MB LOW PRES ANALYZED NEAR 29N87W. ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS IS NOTED
IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE SW WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED SE OF THE FRONT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NE AND INLAND
TONIGHT, BUT THE COLD FRONT TRAILING INTO THE SW GULF WILL SLIDE
EAST INTO THE FAR SW BASIN TUE, THEN DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD
FRONT, REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE OFFSHORE VERACRUZ, MEXICO,
TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH STARTING WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE BASIN.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
FRESH TO STRONG ENE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT ARE PRESENT AT
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH ENE TO E WINDS AND 5
TO 7 FT SEAS DOMINATE THE NORTH-CENTRAL BASIN. GENTLE TO MODERATE
ENE TO SE WINDS AND SEAS AT 3 TO 5 FT PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, LARGE, LONG-PERIOD NW TO N SWELL WILL ARRIVE IN
ATLANTIC PASSAGES AND WATERS E OF THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD
ISLANDS TONIGHT, THEN CONTINUE INTO WED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH STRONG
WINDS PULSING OFF COLOMBIA THROUGH LATE WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
THE SIGNIFICANT SWELL IN THE ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N41W TO JUST SE OF THE TURKS AND
CAICOS. TO THE SE, TWO SURFACE TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED ALONG 42W AND
52W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
OUTSIDE THE SIGNIFICANT SWELL AREA, GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS
AND 6 TO 12 FT SEAS ARE WEST OF 55W. EAST OF THE FRONT TO 35W,
MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS AND SEAS AT 6 TO 10 FT ARE NOTED. FOR
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC, GENTLE TO MODERATE ENE TO E WINDS ALONG
WITH 8 TO 11 FT SEAS ARE EVIDENT FROM THE EQUATOR TO 17N BETWEEN
35W AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL TONIGHT AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE FAR SE WATERS TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. LARGE SWELL EAST OF 70W WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEST OF
60W THROUGH LATE TUE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS
OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA TONIGHT, REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE FLORIDA
KEYS TUE NIGHT, THEN EXIT THE SE WATERS THU. ANOTHER ROUND OF
LARGE, LONG- PERIOD NW TO N SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OVER THE
WATERS EAST OF 75W WED AND SHIFT TO EAST OF 55W BY FRI NIGHT.
ERA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page