694
AXNT20 KNHC 140432
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0605 UTC TUE JAN 14 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0429 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT:
LARGE, LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL IS IMPACTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC,
PRODUCING 12 TO 19 FT SEAS NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 37W AND 61W.
THIS IS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N39W TO
NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS SWELL WILL DIG FARTHER
SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 21N TONIGHT, WHILE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO
BETWEEN 12 AND 17 FT. AS THE NW SWELL CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE, SEAS
GREATER THAN 12 FT SHOULD RETREAT NORTHWARD TO NORTH OF 31N BY
TUESDAY NIGHT.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS
FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT THE WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE
DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 06N11W AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARDS TO 04N14W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N14W
TO 01N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE ITCZ
AND MONSOON TROUGH FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 14W AND 34W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM A 1016 MB LOW PRES ANALYZED NEAR 29N83W. ABUNDANT
CLOUDINESS IS NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WHILE GENTLE TO
MODERATE SW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED SE OF THE FRONT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL MOVE NE AND INLAND
TONIGHT, WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT DISSIPATING TUE NIGHT. FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT, REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE OFFSHORE VERACRUZ, MEXICO,
TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH STARTING WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE BASIN.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
FRESH TO STRONG ENE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT ARE PRESENT AT
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH ENE TO E WINDS AND 5
TO 7 FT SEAS DOMINATE THE NORTH-CENTRAL BASIN. GENTLE TO
MODERATE ENE TO SE WINDS AND SEAS AT 3 TO 5 FT PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, A SET OF LARGE, LONG-PERIOD NW TO N SWELL WILL
ARRIVE IN ATLANTIC PASSAGES AND WATERS E OF THE LEEWARD AND
WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT, THEN CONTINUE INTO WED. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN,
WITH STRONG WINDS PULSING OFF COLOMBIA THROUGH LATE WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
THE SIGNIFICANT SWELL IN THE ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N39W TO NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATED CONVECTION NORTH OF
27N ALONG THE FRONT AXIS. IN ADDITION, SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FOUND NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 36W AND 31W IN
ASSOCIATION TO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. OUTSIDE THE SIGNIFICANT
SWELL AREA, GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS AND 6 TO 12 FT SEAS ARE
WEST OF 60W. EAST OF THE FRONT TO 32W, MODERATE TO FRESH SE
WINDS AND SEAS AT 6 TO 10 FT ARE NOTED. FOR THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC, GENTLE TO MODERATE ENE TO E WINDS ALONG WITH 8 TO 11
FT SEAS ARE EVIDENT FROM THE EQUATOR TO 17N BETWEEN 35W AND THE
56W.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL
TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE OVER THE FAR SE WATERS TUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. LARGE SWELL EAST OF 67W WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEST OF 60W THROUGH LATE TUE. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA TONIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE FLORIDA KEYS TUE
NIGHT, THEN EXIT THE SE WATERS THU. ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE, LONG-
PERIOD NW TO N SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OVER THE WATERS EAST
OF 75W WED AND SHIFT TO EAST OF 55W BY FRI NIGHT.
KRV
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