382
AXNT20 KNHC 140844
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC TUE JAN 14 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT:
LARGE, LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL IS IMPACTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT COVER THE WATERS N OF A LINE FROM 30N58W
TO 21N50W TO 30N35W, WITH SEAS PEAKING AROUND 17 FT NEAR 30N40W.
THE SWELL WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE SUBSIDING TODAY, WITH
COMBINED SEAS DECREASING BELOW 12 FT LATE TONIGHT.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT THE WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 07N12W AND
EXTENDS TO 04N16W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N16W TO 00N37W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 16W
AND 34W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM A 1018 MB LOW PRES OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE OVER THE SW GULF WEST OF THE FRONT WITH
FRESH WINDS ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT. E OF THE FRONT, GENTLE WINDS
PREVAIL. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE W OF THE FRONT AND 3-5 FT E
OF THE FRONT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT, WITH A TROUGH
LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH THU. FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS W OF THE FRONT AND TROUGH WILL DIMINISH THU AS THE TROUGH
DISSIPATES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE BASIN BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT ARE OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 4
TO 6 FT, SEAS ARE NOTED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL BASIN. GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS, AND SEAS AT 3 TO 5 FT, PREVAIL OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, LARGE LONG-PERIOD NW TO N SWELL WILL IMPACT THE
ATLANTIC PASSAGES AND WATERS E OF THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD
ISLANDS INTO WED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN AND SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH STRONG WINDS PULSING
OFF COLOMBIA THROUGH LATE WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
THE SIGNIFICANT SWELL IN THE ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 31N37W TO JUST N OF
HISPANIOLA. LOW PRES, AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAVE ENTERED THE
NW WATERS OFF THE COAST OF E FLORIDA. BETWEEN THE FRONTS, A 1021
MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGH, WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS GENERALLY PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. ASIDE FROM THE AREA
DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE, SEAS 8 FT OR
GREATER COVER MUCH OF THE WATERS E OF 65W. THE MAIN EXCEPTION IS E
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS, WHERE SEAS OF 6-8 FT ARE NOTED. W OF 65W,
SEAS ARE IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE FAR
SE WATERS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. LARGE SWELL
EAST OF 65W WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEST OF 60W THROUGH LATE
TODAY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE WATERS OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL
REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT, THEN EXIT THE SE
WATERS THU. ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE, LONG- PERIOD NW TO N SWELL
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OVER THE WATERS EAST OF 75W WED AND SHIFT TO
EAST OF 55W BY FRI NIGHT.
AL
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