152
AXNT20 KNHC 141749
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC TUE JAN 14 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1800 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT:
LARGE, LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL IS IMPACTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT COVER THE WATERS N OF A LINE FROM 30N55W
TO 21N45W TO 30N32W, WITH SEAS PEAKING AROUND 15 FT NEAR 30N40W.
THE SWELL WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE SUBSIDING TODAY, WITH COMBINED
SEAS DECREASING BELOW 12 FT LATE TONIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER
ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT NW SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS N OF 25N
BETWEEN 40W AND 70W STARTING WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 12-18 FT POSSIBLE.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT THE WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 07N11W AND
EXTENDS TO 05N13W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N13W TO 00N37W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 00N TO 05N BETWEEN
16W AND 46W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF
FROM THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR NAPLES. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ANALYZED FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE TEXAS
COAST NEAR PORT MANSFIELD. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE NORTH OF THE
FRONT, AS WELL AS OVER THE FAR SW GULF W OF THE TROUGH. S AND E
OF THE FRONT, GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-10 FT RANGE
W OF THE FRONT AND 3-6 FT S AND E OF THE FRONT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WILL SLIDE E OF THE AREA
TONIGHT, WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN BASIN
THROUGH THU. STRONG NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL W OF THE TROUGH INTO THU
NIGHT BEFORE THE TROUGH DISSIPATES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
INTO THE BASIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT ARE OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SW BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS, AND
SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT ARE NOTED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL BASIN. GENTLE
TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS, AND SEAS AT 3 TO 5 FT, PREVAIL OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, LARGE LONG-PERIOD NW TO N SWELL WILL IMPACT THE
ATLANTIC PASSAGES AND WATERS E OF THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD
ISLANDS INTO WED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN AND SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH STRONG WINDS PULSING
OFF COLOMBIA AS WELL AS OFFSHORE HISPANIOLA THROUGH LATE WEEK.
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT LONG PERIOD SWELL MAY ARRIVE INTO ATLANTIC
PASSAGES BY FRI.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
THE SIGNIFICANT SWELL IN THE ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 31N37W TO JUST N OF
HISPANIOLA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N71W TO THE SE
FLORIDA COAST. BETWEEN THE FRONTS, A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
NEAR 26N70W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
HIGH, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS GENERALLY PREVAILING
ELSEWHERE. THE MAIN EXCEPTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS, WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS PREVAIL, ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED AREAS OF STRONG NE WINDS BETWEEN THE ISLANDS. ASIDE
FROM THE AREA DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE,
SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER COVER MUCH OF THE WATERS E OF 65W. THE MAIN
EXCEPTION IS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS, WHERE SEAS OF 6-8 FT ARE
NOTED. W OF 65W, SEAS ARE IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS
FROM 20N55W TO THE MONA PASSAGE WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE FAR SE
WATERS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. LARGE SWELL
EAST OF 65W WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL REACH FROM
31N60W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT, THEN CONTINUE E AND EXIT
THE WATERS BY THU NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE, LONG- PERIOD NW
TO N SWELL WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT OVER THE WATERS EAST OF 75W WED
AND SHIFT TO EAST OF 55W BY FRI NIGHT.
ADAMS
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