993
AXNT20 KNHC 142325
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC WED JAN 15 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: LARGE, LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL IS
IMPACTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT COVER THE
WATERS N OF 22N BETWEEN 29W AND 54W. SEAS ARE PEAKING AROUND 15 FT
NEAR 30N40W. THE SWELL WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE SUBSIDING
TONIGHT, WITH COMBINED SEAS DECREASING BELOW 12 FT BY EARLY WED.
LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT NW SWELL WILL IMPACT
THE WATERS N OF 25N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W STARTING WED AFTERNOON AND
PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 12-18 FT
POSSIBLE.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT THE WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 06N11W AND
EXTENDS TO 05N13W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N13W TO 02S40W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF 06N AND W OF 33W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF
FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 22N93W. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE
TEXAS COAST NEAR PORT MANSFIELD. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE NORTH
OF THE FRONT, AS WELL AS OVER THE FAR SW GULF W OF THE TROUGH. S
AND E OF THE FRONT, GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-10 FT
RANGE W OF THE FRONT AND 3-6 FT S AND E OF THE FRONT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS WILL SLIDE E OF THE
AREA TONIGHT, WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN
BASIN INTO THU NIGHT. STRONG N WINDS WILL PREVAIL W OF THE TROUGH.
AT THE END OF THE WEEK, SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY INCREASE TO FRESH TO
STRONG AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT ARE OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SW BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS, AND
SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT ARE NOTED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL BASIN. GENTLE
TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS, AND SEAS AT 3 TO 5 FT, PREVAIL OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, LARGE LONG-PERIOD NW TO N SWELL WILL IMPACT THE
ATLANTIC PASSAGES AND WATERS E OF THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD
ISLANDS INTO WED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN AND SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH STRONG WINDS PULSING
OFF COLOMBIA AS WELL AS OFFSHORE HISPANIOLA INTO FRI NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT LONG PERIOD SWELL IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE INTO
ATLANTIC PASSAGES BY FRI.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
THE SIGNIFICANT SWELL IN THE ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 31N38W TO 18N62W. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N67W TO 25N80W. BETWEEN THE FRONTS, A
1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 25N70W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGH, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
GENERALLY PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. THE MAIN EXCEPTION IS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CANARY ISLANDS, WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS
PREVAIL, ALONG WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF STRONG NE WINDS BETWEEN THE
ISLANDS. ASIDE FROM THE AREA DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION ABOVE, SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER COVER MUCH OF THE WATERS E OF
64W. W OF 64W, SEAS ARE IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, THE COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LARGE SWELL E OF 64W WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WEST ATLANTIC COLD FRONT
WILL REACH FROM 31N52W TO THE SE BAHAMAS BY WED MORNING, THEN
CONTINUE E BEFORE STALLING OVER THE FAR SE WATERS THU NIGHT.
ERA
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