027
AXNT20 KNHC 150428
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0605 UTC WED JAN 15 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0428 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: LARGE, LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL IS
IMPACTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT COVER
THE WATERS N OF 24N BETWEEN 50W AND 29W. SEAS ARE PEAKING AROUND
14 FT NEAR 30N37W. THE SWELL WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE SUBSIDING
TONIGHT, WITH COMBINED SEAS DECREASING BELOW 12 FT BY EARLY WED.
LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT NW SWELL WILL IMPACT
THE WATERS N OF 25N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W STARTING WED AFTERNOON
AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 12-18 FT
POSSIBLE.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT THE WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 10N14W AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 06N15W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N15W TO
02S40W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED SOUTH OF 03N AND
EAST OF 35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01N TO
04N BETWEEN 15W AND 22W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BAY OF
CAMPECHE TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N97W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FOUND IN THE TROUGH AXIS. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO
E WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF, EXCEPT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
WHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-8 FT
RANGE ACROSS THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER
OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE BASIN INTO THU NIGHT. STRONG N
WINDS WILL PREVAIL W OF THE TROUGH. AT THE END OF THE WEEK,
SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE ISLAND DE LA
JUVENTUD TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT ARE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SW BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT
ARE NOTED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL BASIN. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE
WINDS, AND SEAS AT 3 TO 5 FT, PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, LARGE, LONG-PERIOD NW TO N SWELL WILL IMPACT
THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES AND WATERS E OF THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD
ISLANDS INTO WED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN AND SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH STRONG WINDS PULSING
OFF COLOMBIA AS WELL AS OFFSHORE HISPANIOLA INTO FRI NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL LONG PERIOD SWELL IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE INTO ATLANTIC
PASSAGES BY FRI.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
THE SIGNIFICANT SWELL IN THE ATLANTIC.
A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 31N38.5W TO 18N58W
THEN IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE TO 17N63W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
31N64W TO CENTRAL CUBA. BETWEEN THE FRONTS, A 1021 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED NEAR 23N71W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE HIGH, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS GENERALLY PREVAILING
ELSEWHERE. THE MAIN EXCEPTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS, WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS PREVAIL. ASIDE FROM
THE AREA DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE, SEAS 8
FT OR GREATER COVER MUCH OF THE WATERS E OF 63W. W OF 63W, SEAS
ARE IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, LARGE SWELL EAST OF 60W WILL SUBSIDE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N62W TO
CENTRAL CUBA WILL REACH FROM 31N52W TO THE SE BAHAMAS BY WED
MORNING BEFORE STALLING OVER THE FAR SE WATERS THU NIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE, LONG- PERIOD NW TO N SWELL WILL FOLLOW
THIS FRONT OVER THE WATERS EAST OF 75W WED AND SHIFT TO EAST OF
55W BY FRI NIGHT.
KRV
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