104
AXNT20 KNHC 151757
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC WED JAN 15 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1800 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT NW
SWELL IS BEGINNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ARE
OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM
31N58W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. SIGNIFICANT NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 55W AND 75W THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH WAVES OF 12-14 FT OCCURRING N OF 29N BETWEEN 60W
AND 75W THIS AFTERNOON. NW SWELL WILL THEN SPREAD EASTWARD TO
AFFECT WATERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY, WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 12-18 FT POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL THEN
SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT THE WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 10N14W AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 02N17W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02N17W TO
03S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED ALONG AND WITHIN 300 NM OF THE ITCZ.
..GULF OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF, WITH RIDGING EXTENDING
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 22N,
REACHING LOCALLY NEAR-GALE FORCE IN AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 91W AND 94W.
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. FOR AREAS
S OF 22N, E WINDS ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-8 FT
RANGE ACROSS THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN
PART OF THE BASIN INTO THU NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS WILL
PREVAIL N AND W OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THU EVENING, WITH FRESH TO
STRONG SE WINDS E OF THE TROUGH TO 87W TODAY. AT THE END OF THE
WEEK, SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT. THAT FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM SW
LOUISIANA TO LOWER TEXAS EARLY SAT, THEN FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY,
FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF EARLY SUN. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS MAY FOLLOW THE FRONT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW
CARIBBEAN, AS WELL AS IN THE LEE OF CUBA, AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
SEAS ARE IN THE 7-10 FT RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN,
AND 4-6 FT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN, SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE NOTED.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH STRONG WINDS PULSING OFF
COLOMBIA, HISPANIOLA, AND EASTERN CUBA AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST
FRI NIGHT. LONG-PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL IMPACT ATLANTIC
PASSAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES MAY
DEVELOP IN THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND, GRADUALLY
BUILDING SEAS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
THE SIGNIFICANT SWELL IN THE ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N58W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS, WHILE A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N37W TO THE NORTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS. MODERATE TO FRESH W WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE
WATERS N OF 30N AND W OF 35W, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
ELSEWHERE. MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS ARE ALSO OCCURRING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE N OF
07N BETWEEN 19W AND 55W. ELSEWHERE, SEAS OF 4-7 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N58W
TO THE SE BAHAMAS WILL STALL AND WEAKEN OVER THE FAR SE WATERS BY
THU NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS MAINLY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
IMPACT THE WATERS NORTH OF 29N. THE FRONT HAS USHERED IN A SET OF
LARGE, LONG- PERIOD NW TO N SWELL OVER THE WATERS EAST OF 75W. THE
SWELL WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF 55W BY FRI NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN THU NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT, WITH
NEW LARGE SWELL MAINLY NORTH OF 27N, ALONG WITH FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS. ANOTHER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE WATERS OFF NORTHERN FLORIDA
THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ON EITHER SIDE OF IT.
ADAMS
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