694
AXNT20 KNHC 160429
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0605 UTC THU JAN 16 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0424 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT
NW SWELL IS ALREADY ENTERING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MAINLY N OF
29N BETWEEN 55W AND 72W IN THE VICINITY OF TWO COLD FRONTS.
FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ARE OCCURRING BEHIND AND BETWEEN THE
FRONTS. THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS N OF 27N
BETWEEN 55W AND 75W TONIGHT, WITH WAVES OF 12-16 FT, THEN SPREAD
EASTWARD TO AFFECT WATERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 45W AND 70W THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 12-18 FT. SEAS WILL
THEN SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT, WITH NEW LARGE SWELL MAINLY NORTH OF 27N, ALONG WITH
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT THE WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 10N14W AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 02N23W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02N23W TO
00N38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG AND WITHIN
300 NM OF THE ITCZ.
..GULF OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF ALONG 95W, WHILE A
COLD FRONT IS FORMING OVER THE NW GULF. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS DEPICTED OVER THE NW GULF IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
FORMING COLD FRONT. RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS N OF 22N AND W OF 95W. MODERATE TO
FRESH E TO SE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. SEAS
ARE IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE ACROSS THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER
OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE BASIN INTO THU NIGHT. FRESH TO
STRONG N WINDS WILL PREVAIL W OF THE TROUGH INTO THU EVENING,
WITH MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS E OF THE TROUGH TO 87W TONIGHT.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN BY THE END
OF THE WEEK, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO REACH FROM SW
LOUISIANA TO LOWER TEXAS EARLY SAT, THEN FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY,
FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF EARLY SUN, PUSHING SE OF THE BASIN SUN
NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS MAY FOLLOW THE
FRONT INTO NEXT WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW
CARIBBEAN, AS WELL AS IN THE LEE OF CUBA, AND THROUGH THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW
CARIBBEAN, AND 4-7 FT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN, SEAS OF 3-6 FT ARE NOTED.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH STRONG WINDS PULSING OFF COLOMBIA,
HISPANIOLA, AND EASTERN CUBA AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST FRI
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FURTHER BUILD ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS. LONG-PERIOD
NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL IMPACT ATLANTIC PASSAGES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES MAY DEVELOP IN THE TROPICAL
N ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, GRADUALLY BUILDING
SEAS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
THE SIGNIFICANT SWELL IN THE ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N47W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS. A
SECOND COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N61N TO 31N80W. FRESH TO STRONG
NW WINDS ARE OCCURRING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTS, WHILE
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED E OF THE FIRST FRONT. TO THE
E, AN AREA OF FRESH NE WINDS PREVAIL NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS.
SEAS ARE IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE N OF 04N BETWEEN 19W AND 55W.
ELSEWHERE, SEAS OF 4-7 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 26N55W
TO NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WILL STALL AND WEAKEN OVER
THE FAR SE WATERS BY THU NIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
31N61W TO 31N80W. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS, MOVING E OF THE AREA BY THU NIGHT. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THESE FRONTS WILL IMPACT THE
WATERS NORTH OF 29N. LARGE, LONG- PERIOD NW TO N SWELL NORTH OF
27N AND EAST OF 75W ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTS WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST OF 55W BY FRI NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE BASIN THU NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT, WITH NEW LARGE SWELL MAINLY
NORTH OF 27N, ALONG WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS. ANOTHER FRONT
MAY IMPACT THE WATERS OFF NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ON EITHER SIDE OF IT. THE FRONT SHOULD
STALL AND WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KRV
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