473
AXNT20 KNHC 161737
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC THU JAN 16 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1800 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: NW SWELL HAS PROPAGATED INTO
THE NORTHERN DISCUSSION WATERS, WITH SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER OVER
THE WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 45W AND 70W. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY
PEAKING NEAR 15 FT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING. BY EARLY FRI, SEAS WILL
DECREASE BELOW 12 FT.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT THE WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 09N13W AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 01N26W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 01N26W TO
01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 250 NM OF
THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH.
..GULF OF MEXICO
A 1018 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N91W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW SOUTHWESTWARD TO 20N95W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW EASTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO
INLAND MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OBSERVED IN AN AREA NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN THE STATIONARY FRONT AND
THE TROUGH. FRESH TO STRONG E TO NE WINDS ARE N OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT TO ABOUT 28N, WHILE FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ARE TO THE N
AND W OF BOTH THE LOW AND COLD FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS
ARE N OF 28N, WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH S WINDS ARE S OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT. SEAS ARE 7-11 FT TO THE N AND W OF BOTH THE LOW
AND COLD FRONT. SEAS ARE 3-7 FT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN TODAY
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF
MEXICO. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE BASIN ON FRI AND SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF ON SAT.
FRESH N WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON SAT, WITH WINDS
STRENGTHENING TO STRONG ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN ON SUN. ROUGH
SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A SHEAR LINE IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE EASTERN, CENTRAL, AND SW
CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS PREVAIL NORTH OF THE SHEAR
LINE OVER THE CENTRAL TO NE CARIBBEAN AND THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES, WITH SEAS IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE IN THESE REGIONS. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-6 FT ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE
SOUTH OF THE SHEAR LINE AND IN THE NW CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN, CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE
IN NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL PULSE TO STRONG SPEEDS OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA,
THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE AND DOWNWIND OF HISPANIOLA, AND ROUGH
SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONG WINDS. LONG-PERIOD NE TO E SWELL
WILL LEAD TO ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH TO STRONG E TO NE
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE BASIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
SIGNIFICANT SWELL IN THE ATLANTIC.
A FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N47W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA.
A SECOND COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N55W TO 26N69W. MODERATE TO
FRESH W TO NW WINDS ARE N OF 26N BETWEEN 45W AND 70W, WITH
LOCALIZED AREAS OF STRONG WINDS ALONG AND NORTH OF 30N. ANOTHER
AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS IS ANALYZED VIA SCATTEROMETER
DATA E OF 24W BETWEEN 22N AND 28N. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO NE
WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. ASIDE FROM THE
AREA OF 12 FT OR GREATER SEAS MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION, 8 FT OR GREATER SEAS COVER THE WATERS N OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 31N33W TO 24N63W TO 31N74W. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, A COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD TODAY, PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT, GENERALLY NORTH OF 28N AND EAST OF 60W. A LONG-PERIOD N
SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD ROUGH
SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC INTO THIS WEEKEND, PRODUCING SEAS
IN EXCESS OF 8 FT NORTH OF 25N AND EAST OF 75W TODAY, AND NORTH
OF 20N BY FRI MORNING. SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT ARE EXPECTED NORTH
OF 28N AND EAST OF 70W TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE
COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL REINFORCE ROUGH SEAS
NORTH OF 28N AND EAST OF 80W BY FRI MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG W TO
NW WINDS, GENERALLY NORTH OF 28N, WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. SOUTH OF
20N, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL.
LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE COAST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS IN
THE NORTHWESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC SAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ADAMS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page