496
AXNT20 KNHC 162324
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC FRI JAN 17 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: LONG PERIOD NW SWELL FOLLOWS A
COUPLE OF COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER DOMINATE THE WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 45W AND 70W.
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY PEAKING NEAR 15 FT ALONG 31N. THIS SWELL EVENT
WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD TONIGHT WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE BELOW 12 FT ON FRI, BUT A LARGE
AREA OF SEAS IN THE 8 TO 11 FT RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
MOST OF THE WATERS N OF 20N AND E OF 60W, AND N OF 27N BETWEEN
60W AND 75W BY FRI AFTERNOON.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT THE WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE COAST
OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08.5N13W AND EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO
01N26W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 01N26W TO 02N42W TO 00N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
02N TO 06N BETWEEN 05N TO 14N. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
AFFECTING PARTS OF LIBERIA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN
WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 42W AND 48W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
A WEAK 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED NEAR 25N89W. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF
CAMPECHE. A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE LOW EASTWARD INTO
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OBSERVED OVER THE SE GULF IN THE VICINITY OF THE STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS, WITH PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN,
ARE BANKING UP AGAINST THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS
IN MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS FOLLOW THE
COLD FRONT, WHILE FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ARE NOTED PER
SCATTEROMETER DATA N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE EASTERN
GULF WHERE MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHT
SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF W FLORIDA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN TODAY
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF
MEXICO. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE BASIN ON FRI AND SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF LATE ON
SAT. FRESH N WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT BY EARLY SUN, WITH WINDS
STRENGTHENING TO STRONG SPEEDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN ON SUN.
ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A SHEAR LINE IS ANALYZED FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR
12N75W. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS PREVAIL NORTH OF THE SHEAR LINE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NE CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING THE ATLANTIC
PASSAGES. SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT WITHIN THESE WINDS. GENTLE TO
MODERATE NE TO E WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT ARE NOTED SOUTH OF
THE SHEAR LINE AND IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS, WITH
POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS, ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHEAR LINE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN, CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE IN NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL PULSE TO STRONG SPEEDS OFFSHORE OF
COLOMBIA, THROUGH THE MONA AND WINDWARD PASSAGES AND DOWNWIND OF
HISPANIOLA, AND ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONG WINDS. LONG-
PERIOD NE TO E SWELL WILL LEAD TO ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC PASSAGES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING
AHEAD, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL
IMPACT MUCH OF THE BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
A SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT CURRENTLY PROPAGATING CROSS THE ATLANTIC
FORECAST WATERS.
A FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N45W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA.
IT IS FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM 31N52W
TO THE NW BAHAMAS WHERE IT BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
CONTINUES WESTWARD ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS ARE OBSERVED IN THE WAKE OF THE SECOND
COLD FRONT, PARTICULARLY N OF 28N W OF THE FRONT TO NEAR 70W.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SW WINDS ARE OCCURRING E OF THE MAIN
FRONT, MAINLY N OF 28N E OF THE FRONT TO ABOUT 44W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND RUNS FROM 28N21W
TO 20N22W TO 14N18W. SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE THE
WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS AS WELL AS FRESH SE
WINDS ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH COVERING ROUGHLY THE WATERS
FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 18W AND 21W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC FORECAST
REGION.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, A COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD TONIGHT, PRODUCING FRESH SW WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT, GENERALLY NORTH OF 28N AND EAST OF 70W. A LONG-PERIOD N
SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY STRONG STORM SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD ROUGH SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WATERS INTO THIS WEEKEND, WITH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT NORTH OF
23N AND EAST OF 75W TONIGHT, AND NORTH OF 20N BY FRI MORNING.
SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF 28N AND EAST OF 65W
TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL REINFORCE ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 28N AND EAST OF
80W BY LATE TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG W TO NW WINDS, GENERALLY
NORTH OF 28N, WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. SOUTH OF 20N, MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE COAST
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS IN THE NORTHWESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC SAT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
GR
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